Which Senate races will be within 5%?

Open16 markets·Ends Nov 3, 2026

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Senate Midterms US Election Politics

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Markets

Market				Ends
Michigan	68%	$447	$872	Nov 3, 2026
Maine	65%	$0	$254	Nov 3, 2026
Texas	61%	$1.41K	$665	Nov 3, 2026
Georgia	60%	$0	$90.8	Nov 3, 2026
Ohio (Special)	53%	$0	$187	Nov 3, 2026
New Hampshire	45%	$1.01K	$296	Nov 3, 2026
Nebraska	44%	$1.9K	$399	Nov 3, 2026
Iowa	41%	$764	$911	Nov 3, 2026
North Carolina	27%	$1.67K	$1.44K	Nov 3, 2026
Florida (Special)	26%	$0	$832	Nov 3, 2026
Minnesota	25%	$5.77K	$3.94K	Nov 3, 2026
New Mexico	10%	$1.45K	$12.8K	Nov 3, 2026

Age	Market	Trader	Outcome	Shares	Value
1h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 TeenagePanda	No / 39.0¢	+20.51	$8
1h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	LornaPredicts	No / 39.0¢	+20.00	$7.8
1h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 johnnath1222	Yes / 61.0¢	+40.51	$25.1
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	LornaPredicts	No / 40.0¢	+20.00	$8
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 resilience26	No / 40.0¢	+55.00	$22
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 johnnath1222	Yes / 60.0¢	+75.00	$45.7
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 Mojito9	No / 42.0¢	+10.00	$4.2
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 0x45e6Df48cCF5d1773D509C97052F819690cEC078-1782111207998	Yes / 59.0¢	-150.00	$88.5
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 0x40C73F1916fbd495f8117Dc5755561aD778CB1E8-1782111633519	Yes / 59.0¢	-5.00	$2.95
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 0x00cDEa4d807710807cdBC54AD34cFAFCd992c0aE-1782010404295	Yes / 59.0¢	-5.00	$2.95
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 johnnath1222	Yes / 58.9¢	+170.00	$102
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 johnnath1222	Yes / 59.0¢	+7.50	$4.5
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 jdkfbsbdskjbfjksq	Yes / 59.0¢	-7.50	$4.42
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Dr.PNL	Yes / 56.0¢	-7.89	$4.42
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 johnnath1222	Yes / 56.0¢	+7.89	$4.5
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 SitsToPee	Yes / 48.0¢	+480.00	$230
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 johnnath1222	No / 52.0¢	+480.00	$254
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 SitsToPee	Yes / 48.0¢	+20.00	$9.6
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 189SSSS	Yes / 47.0¢	-20.00	$9.4
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 0x45e6Df48cCF5d1773D509C97052F819690cEC078-1782111207998	Yes / 49.0¢	+150.00	$73.5
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 0x00cDEa4d807710807cdBC54AD34cFAFCd992c0aE-1782010404295	Yes / 50.0¢	+5.00	$2.5
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 0x40C73F1916fbd495f8117Dc5755561aD778CB1E8-1782111633519	Yes / 49.0¢	+5.00	$2.45
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 jdkfbsbdskjbfjksq	Yes / 49.0¢	+7.50	$3.67
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 johnnath1222	No / 51.0¢	+228.50	$119
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 billygod	No / 51.0¢	-21.00	$10.7
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	LornaPredicts	Yes / 49.0¢	+20.00	$9.8
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 189SSSS	Yes / 49.0¢	+20.00	$9.8
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Dr.PNL	Yes / 54.0¢	-35.76	$19.3
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 johnnath1222	Yes / 54.0¢	+55.76	$30.7
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	LornaPredicts	No / 46.0¢	+20.00	$9.2
3h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 0xb1853b49C97274081b83A1DC6CE8653Ff111C857-1785354778107	Yes / 54.0¢	+10.44	$5.74
3h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Dr.PNL	Yes / 54.0¢	-10.44	$5.64
5h	Will the Nebraska 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	ArmageddonRewardsBilly	No / 56.0¢	+34.00	$19
5h	Will the Nebraska 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 slqop	No / 55.0¢	-34.00	$18.7
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 gh561f	No / 71.2¢	-20.00	$14.2
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 PPMT	No / 72.0¢	+20.00	$14.4
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 fgh1fg65	No / 71.2¢	-20.00	$14.2
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 0xca75...390a64	No / 72.0¢	+20.00	$14.4
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 0xA158c	Yes / 24.3¢	-3.17	$0.77
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 Schnorrer	Yes / 25.0¢	+3.17	$0.79
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 0xca75...390a64	No / 73.0¢	-0.21	$0.15
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 0xA158c	Yes / 26.0¢	+3.17	$0.82
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 Luckyfooty	No / 73.9¢	+3.38	$2.53
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 65fg156df	No / 71.2¢	-20.00	$14.2
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	LornaPredicts	No / 72.0¢	+20.00	$14.4
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 0xca75...390a64	No / 72.0¢	+20.00	$14.4
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 56fgh4j15g	No / 71.2¢	-20.00	$14.2
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 AJSV	No / 73.0¢	+19.78	$14.6
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 0xca75...390a64	No / 73.0¢	-19.78	$14.4
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 SitsToPee	No / 71.0¢	+17.66	$12.5

Age	Market	Trader	Outcome	Shares	Value
1h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 TeenagePanda	No / 39.0¢	+20.51	$8
1h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	LornaPredicts	No / 39.0¢	+20.00	$7.8
1h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 johnnath1222	Yes / 61.0¢	+40.51	$25.1
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	LornaPredicts	No / 40.0¢	+20.00	$8
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 resilience26	No / 40.0¢	+55.00	$22
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 johnnath1222	Yes / 60.0¢	+75.00	$45.7
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 Mojito9	No / 42.0¢	+10.00	$4.2
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 0x45e6Df48cCF5d1773D509C97052F819690cEC078-1782111207998	Yes / 59.0¢	-150.00	$88.5
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 0x40C73F1916fbd495f8117Dc5755561aD778CB1E8-1782111633519	Yes / 59.0¢	-5.00	$2.95
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 0x00cDEa4d807710807cdBC54AD34cFAFCd992c0aE-1782010404295	Yes / 59.0¢	-5.00	$2.95
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 johnnath1222	Yes / 58.9¢	+170.00	$102
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 johnnath1222	Yes / 59.0¢	+7.50	$4.5
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 jdkfbsbdskjbfjksq	Yes / 59.0¢	-7.50	$4.42
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Dr.PNL	Yes / 56.0¢	-7.89	$4.42
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 johnnath1222	Yes / 56.0¢	+7.89	$4.5
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 SitsToPee	Yes / 48.0¢	+480.00	$230
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 johnnath1222	No / 52.0¢	+480.00	$254
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 SitsToPee	Yes / 48.0¢	+20.00	$9.6
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 189SSSS	Yes / 47.0¢	-20.00	$9.4
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 0x45e6Df48cCF5d1773D509C97052F819690cEC078-1782111207998	Yes / 49.0¢	+150.00	$73.5
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 0x00cDEa4d807710807cdBC54AD34cFAFCd992c0aE-1782010404295	Yes / 50.0¢	+5.00	$2.5
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 0x40C73F1916fbd495f8117Dc5755561aD778CB1E8-1782111633519	Yes / 49.0¢	+5.00	$2.45
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 jdkfbsbdskjbfjksq	Yes / 49.0¢	+7.50	$3.67
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 johnnath1222	No / 51.0¢	+228.50	$119
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 billygod	No / 51.0¢	-21.00	$10.7
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	LornaPredicts	Yes / 49.0¢	+20.00	$9.8
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 189SSSS	Yes / 49.0¢	+20.00	$9.8
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Dr.PNL	Yes / 54.0¢	-35.76	$19.3
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 johnnath1222	Yes / 54.0¢	+55.76	$30.7
2h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	LornaPredicts	No / 46.0¢	+20.00	$9.2
3h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 0xb1853b49C97274081b83A1DC6CE8653Ff111C857-1785354778107	Yes / 54.0¢	+10.44	$5.74
3h	Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	Dr.PNL	Yes / 54.0¢	-10.44	$5.64
5h	Will the Nebraska 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	ArmageddonRewardsBilly	No / 56.0¢	+34.00	$19
5h	Will the Nebraska 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 slqop	No / 55.0¢	-34.00	$18.7
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 gh561f	No / 71.2¢	-20.00	$14.2
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 PPMT	No / 72.0¢	+20.00	$14.4
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 fgh1fg65	No / 71.2¢	-20.00	$14.2
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 0xca75...390a64	No / 72.0¢	+20.00	$14.4
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 0xA158c	Yes / 24.3¢	-3.17	$0.77
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 Schnorrer	Yes / 25.0¢	+3.17	$0.79
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 0xca75...390a64	No / 73.0¢	-0.21	$0.15
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 0xA158c	Yes / 26.0¢	+3.17	$0.82
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 Luckyfooty	No / 73.9¢	+3.38	$2.53
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 65fg156df	No / 71.2¢	-20.00	$14.2
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	LornaPredicts	No / 72.0¢	+20.00	$14.4
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 0xca75...390a64	No / 72.0¢	+20.00	$14.4
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 56fgh4j15g	No / 71.2¢	-20.00	$14.2
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 AJSV	No / 73.0¢	+19.78	$14.6
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 0xca75...390a64	No / 73.0¢	-19.78	$14.4
5h	Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	0 SitsToPee	No / 71.0¢	+17.66	$12.5

Which Senate races will be within 5%?

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Which Senate races will be within 5%?

Markets

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Recent trades

Recent trades

Which Senate races will be within 5%?

Probability history

Markets

Recent trades

Which Senate races will be within 5%?

Probability history

Probability history

Markets

Recent trades

Recent trades

Recent trades

Probability history