Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Open32 markets·Ends Dec 31, 2026

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google OpenAI AI DeepSeek

This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Markets

Market
None in 2026	59%	$14.4	$5.31K
Anthropic	30%	$17.2	$1.08K
Google	14%	$26.7	$1.75K
OpenAI	4%	$34.2	$1.74K
xAI	2%	$15	$2.64K
DeepSeek	0%	$30	$3.06K
Mistral	0%	$5.02	$3.34K
Alibaba	0%	$15.1	$2.93K
Z.ai	0%	$5.02	$3.7K

Age	Market	Trader	Outcome	Shares	Value
3h	Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Haradwaith	Yes / 4.0¢	+5.60	$0.22
3h	Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.	Yes / 3.8¢	-5.60	$0.22
3h	Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 Colala	No / 95.9¢	-9.40	$9.01
3h	Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.	Yes / 3.9¢	-9.40	$0.37
6h	Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 godblessme2026	No / 41.0¢	+5.08	$2.08
6h	Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.	Yes / 3.8¢	+5.00	$0.19
6h	Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.	Yes / 1.6¢	+5.00	$0.08
6h	Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 alexkrg	Yes / 0.2¢	+5.00	$0.01
6h	Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 godblessme2026	No / 99.8¢	+5.00	$4.99
6h	Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 smallreceipt	No / 99.9¢	+5.00	$5
6h	Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 fang1957	Yes / 0.2¢	+5.00	$0.01
6h	Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 quietparcel	No / 98.4¢	+5.00	$4.92
6h	Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 godblessme2026	No / 99.8¢	+5.00	$4.99
6h	Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Haradwaith	No / 92.0¢	-5.00	$4.6
6h	Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 northdrawer	No / 96.2¢	+5.00	$4.82
6h	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 plainfolder	No / 70.0¢	+5.00	$3.54
6h	Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 0x92bb11Aa6E71aaEB4cea3C9A4EB915E2d5dC1AFB-1768960544824	Yes / 0.1¢	+5.00	$0.01
6h	Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 godblessme2026	No / 99.8¢	+5.00	$4.99
6h	Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 graynotebook19	No / 92.0¢	+5.00	$4.61
6h	Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	jozeslemsek	Yes / 0.2¢	+5.00	$0.01
6h	Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 senoritaawesome	Yes / 59.0¢	+5.08	$3.05
6h	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 fotyuk	Yes / 30.0¢	+5.00	$1.5
13h	Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 0xFMEKPS	Yes / 1.0¢	+5.00	$0.05
13h	Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 14gjhgjk	Yes / 1.0¢	-5.00	$0.05
18h	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 AlessandroCE	Yes / 31.0¢	+3.23	$1.03
18h	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 0x34a42279AD	Yes / 31.0¢	-3.23	$1
19h	Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 grigorygoldsheid	No / 99.7¢	-15.00	$15
19h	Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 14gjhgjk	Yes / 0.3¢	-6.76	$0.02
19h	Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 no1biao	Yes / 0.3¢	-8.24	$0.02
1d	Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 0x92bb11Aa6E71aaEB4cea3C9A4EB915E2d5dC1AFB-1768960544824	Yes / 0.1¢	+10.00	$0.01
1d	Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 DkOYL	Yes / 0.1¢	-10.00	$0.01
1d	Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 DkOYL	Yes / 0.1¢	-10.00	$0.01
1d	Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 0x92bb11Aa6E71aaEB4cea3C9A4EB915E2d5dC1AFB-1768960544824	Yes / 0.1¢	+10.00	$0.01
1d	Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 Colala	No / 96.6¢	-10.00	$9.66
1d	Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 0x3606F455cF588C84453f56E749cd15BCa4f14e08-1760889589657	No / 46.0¢	-10.00	$4.6
1d	Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 DkOYL	No / 96.6¢	+10.00	$9.67
1d	Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 DkOYL	No / 46.0¢	+10.00	$4.7
1d	Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.	Yes / 1.6¢	+10.00	$0.16
1d	Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 DkOYL	No / 99.6¢	+10.00	$9.96
1d	Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Haradwaith	No / 87.0¢	-10.00	$8.7
1d	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 DkOYL	No / 70.0¢	+10.00	$7.08
1d	Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 DkOYL	No / 99.8¢	+10.00	$9.98
1d	Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 fang1957	Yes / 0.2¢	+10.00	$0.02
1d	Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 14gjhgjk	Yes / 0.4¢	+10.00	$0.04
1d	Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 DkOYL	No / 98.4¢	+10.00	$9.85
1d	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 fotyuk	Yes / 30.0¢	+10.00	$3
1d	Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 DkOYL	No / 87.0¢	+10.00	$8.75
1d	Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 benjaminnetanyhoo112	Yes / 15.0¢	-3.33	$0.5
1d	Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 bionere	Yes / 14.2¢	+13.33	$1.96
1d	Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 no1biao	Yes / 14.0¢	-10.00	$1.4

Age	Market	Trader	Outcome	Shares	Value
3h	Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Haradwaith	Yes / 4.0¢	+5.60	$0.22
3h	Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.	Yes / 3.8¢	-5.60	$0.22
3h	Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 Colala	No / 95.9¢	-9.40	$9.01
3h	Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.	Yes / 3.9¢	-9.40	$0.37
6h	Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 godblessme2026	No / 41.0¢	+5.08	$2.08
6h	Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.	Yes / 3.8¢	+5.00	$0.19
6h	Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.	Yes / 1.6¢	+5.00	$0.08
6h	Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 alexkrg	Yes / 0.2¢	+5.00	$0.01
6h	Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 godblessme2026	No / 99.8¢	+5.00	$4.99
6h	Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 smallreceipt	No / 99.9¢	+5.00	$5
6h	Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 fang1957	Yes / 0.2¢	+5.00	$0.01
6h	Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 quietparcel	No / 98.4¢	+5.00	$4.92
6h	Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 godblessme2026	No / 99.8¢	+5.00	$4.99
6h	Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Haradwaith	No / 92.0¢	-5.00	$4.6
6h	Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 northdrawer	No / 96.2¢	+5.00	$4.82
6h	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 plainfolder	No / 70.0¢	+5.00	$3.54
6h	Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 0x92bb11Aa6E71aaEB4cea3C9A4EB915E2d5dC1AFB-1768960544824	Yes / 0.1¢	+5.00	$0.01
6h	Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 godblessme2026	No / 99.8¢	+5.00	$4.99
6h	Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 graynotebook19	No / 92.0¢	+5.00	$4.61
6h	Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	jozeslemsek	Yes / 0.2¢	+5.00	$0.01
6h	Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 senoritaawesome	Yes / 59.0¢	+5.08	$3.05
6h	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 fotyuk	Yes / 30.0¢	+5.00	$1.5
13h	Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 0xFMEKPS	Yes / 1.0¢	+5.00	$0.05
13h	Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 14gjhgjk	Yes / 1.0¢	-5.00	$0.05
18h	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 AlessandroCE	Yes / 31.0¢	+3.23	$1.03
18h	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 0x34a42279AD	Yes / 31.0¢	-3.23	$1
19h	Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 grigorygoldsheid	No / 99.7¢	-15.00	$15
19h	Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 14gjhgjk	Yes / 0.3¢	-6.76	$0.02
19h	Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 no1biao	Yes / 0.3¢	-8.24	$0.02
1d	Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 0x92bb11Aa6E71aaEB4cea3C9A4EB915E2d5dC1AFB-1768960544824	Yes / 0.1¢	+10.00	$0.01
1d	Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 DkOYL	Yes / 0.1¢	-10.00	$0.01
1d	Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 DkOYL	Yes / 0.1¢	-10.00	$0.01
1d	Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 0x92bb11Aa6E71aaEB4cea3C9A4EB915E2d5dC1AFB-1768960544824	Yes / 0.1¢	+10.00	$0.01
1d	Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 Colala	No / 96.6¢	-10.00	$9.66
1d	Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 0x3606F455cF588C84453f56E749cd15BCa4f14e08-1760889589657	No / 46.0¢	-10.00	$4.6
1d	Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 DkOYL	No / 96.6¢	+10.00	$9.67
1d	Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 DkOYL	No / 46.0¢	+10.00	$4.7
1d	Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.	Yes / 1.6¢	+10.00	$0.16
1d	Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 DkOYL	No / 99.6¢	+10.00	$9.96
1d	Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Haradwaith	No / 87.0¢	-10.00	$8.7
1d	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 DkOYL	No / 70.0¢	+10.00	$7.08
1d	Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 DkOYL	No / 99.8¢	+10.00	$9.98
1d	Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 fang1957	Yes / 0.2¢	+10.00	$0.02
1d	Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 14gjhgjk	Yes / 0.4¢	+10.00	$0.04
1d	Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 DkOYL	No / 98.4¢	+10.00	$9.85
1d	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 fotyuk	Yes / 30.0¢	+10.00	$3
1d	Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 DkOYL	No / 87.0¢	+10.00	$8.75
1d	Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 benjaminnetanyhoo112	Yes / 15.0¢	-3.33	$0.5
1d	Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 bionere	Yes / 14.2¢	+13.33	$1.96
1d	Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	0 no1biao	Yes / 14.0¢	-10.00	$1.4

Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

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Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

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Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

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Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Probability history

Probability history

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