Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Open9 markets·Ends Oct 28, 2026

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$80K

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2,420

Traders

203

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$855

Parlays Kevin Warsh Fed Rates Jerome Powell

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Markets

Market
Pause–Pause–Pause	48%	$33K	$20.3K
Other	44%	$19.9K	$30.4K
Pause–Pause–Cut	5%	$820	$12.6K
Pause–Cut–Pause	0%	$811	$10.5K
Pause–Cut–Cut	0%	$759	$12.3K
Cut–Cut–Pause	0%	$323	$11.6K
Cut–Cut–Cut	0%	$431	$13.2K
Cut–Pause–Pause	0%	$637	$12K
Cut–Pause–Cut	0%	$537	$13.4K

Age	Market	Trader	Outcome	Shares	Value
1m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 GreenYoshi	No / 52.0¢	-2.88	$1.5
1m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 gr1221y	No / 52.0¢	+2.88	$1.53
1m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 GreenYoshi	No / 51.0¢	-16.50	$8.41
1m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 PPMT	Yes / 47.8¢	-16.50	$7.88
1m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 PPMT	Yes / 49.0¢	+16.52	$8.09
1m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 AJSV	No / 51.0¢	+16.52	$8.63
16m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 chongyayay	No / 49.8¢	-50.00	$24.9
16m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 AJSV	No / 51.0¢	+50.00	$25.5
34m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Dr.PNL	No / 50.0¢	-129.00	$64.5
34m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	DancewithRisk	Yes / 48.8¢	-129.00	$62.9
34m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 looks1584	No / 47.8¢	-50.00	$23.9
34m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 AJSV	No / 49.0¢	+50.00	$24.5
34m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	DancewithRisk	Yes / 49.8¢	-988.00	$492
34m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 0x0820-3	No / 49.0¢	-70.00	$34.3
34m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	grazkag	No / 49.0¢	-918.00	$450
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 nc3iceibvtvetvbt	Yes / 0.4¢	+75.96	$0.3
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 0x7d64...4af001	Yes / 0.4¢	+7.35	$0.03
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 0x8dc4...195c9a	Yes / 0.4¢	+102.22	$0.41
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 0x45e6Df48cCF5d1773D509C97052F819690cEC078-1782111207998	Yes / 0.4¢	+5.00	$0.02
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 e46m3	No / 99.6¢	+190.53	$190
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 0x0820-3	No / 49.0¢	-50.00	$24.5
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	DancewithRisk	Yes / 49.8¢	-4,242.79	$2.11K
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 cedriss	No / 49.0¢	-250.00	$123
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 Parad0x658	No / 49.0¢	-3,942.79	$1.93K
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 e46m3	No / 99.5¢	+9.00	$8.96
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 0x6ffd...82cdbc	Yes / 0.5¢	+9.00	$0.04
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 e46m3	No / 99.5¢	+100.00	$99.5
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44.	Yes / 0.5¢	+100.00	$0.5
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 0x141DC90b5E77674587890DFB8E7DaEAC02ABA115-1775683426687	Yes / 5.0¢	+586.51	$29.3
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 eeeeeeret	Yes / 4.8¢	-586.51	$27.9
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 4-testfollower-hm7	Yes / 4.8¢	-5.00	$0.24
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 eeeeeeret	Yes / 5.0¢	+5.00	$0.25
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 AJSV	Yes / 49.0¢	-117.24	$57.4
38m	Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Corlys	No / 99.9¢	+43.50	$43.5
38m	Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	AlAhmeda	Yes / 0.1¢	+2.10	$0
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 Bigggggggg	No / 99.6¢	+104.00	$104
38m	Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Corlys	No / 99.8¢	+43.50	$43.4
38m	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 godblessme2026	No / 56.0¢	+75.00	$42.9
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Corlys	No / 99.6¢	+43.50	$43.3
38m	Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 0x8dc4...195c9a	Yes / 0.2¢	+1.92	$0
38m	Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Corlys	No / 99.8¢	+43.50	$43.4
38m	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 AiBird	Yes / 44.0¢	+104.00	$45.8
38m	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 AiBird	Yes / 44.0¢	+43.50	$19.1
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 flexer78	Yes / 1.6¢	+13.09	$0.21
38m	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Corlys	No / 56.0¢	+43.50	$24.9
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Corlys	No / 49.0¢	+14.50	$7.11
38m	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Novus0rdoSeclorum	No / 56.0¢	+121.82	$69.7
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 GreenYoshi	No / 49.0¢	+50.00	$24.5
38m	Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	ultralisk	Yes / 0.2¢	+231.81	$0.46
38m	Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 TENETENET	Yes / 0.1¢	+7.58	$0.01

Age	Market	Trader	Outcome	Shares	Value
1m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 GreenYoshi	No / 52.0¢	-2.88	$1.5
1m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 gr1221y	No / 52.0¢	+2.88	$1.53
1m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 GreenYoshi	No / 51.0¢	-16.50	$8.41
1m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 PPMT	Yes / 47.8¢	-16.50	$7.88
1m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 PPMT	Yes / 49.0¢	+16.52	$8.09
1m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 AJSV	No / 51.0¢	+16.52	$8.63
16m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 chongyayay	No / 49.8¢	-50.00	$24.9
16m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 AJSV	No / 51.0¢	+50.00	$25.5
34m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Dr.PNL	No / 50.0¢	-129.00	$64.5
34m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	DancewithRisk	Yes / 48.8¢	-129.00	$62.9
34m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 looks1584	No / 47.8¢	-50.00	$23.9
34m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 AJSV	No / 49.0¢	+50.00	$24.5
34m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	DancewithRisk	Yes / 49.8¢	-988.00	$492
34m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 0x0820-3	No / 49.0¢	-70.00	$34.3
34m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	grazkag	No / 49.0¢	-918.00	$450
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 nc3iceibvtvetvbt	Yes / 0.4¢	+75.96	$0.3
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 0x7d64...4af001	Yes / 0.4¢	+7.35	$0.03
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 0x8dc4...195c9a	Yes / 0.4¢	+102.22	$0.41
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 0x45e6Df48cCF5d1773D509C97052F819690cEC078-1782111207998	Yes / 0.4¢	+5.00	$0.02
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 e46m3	No / 99.6¢	+190.53	$190
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 0x0820-3	No / 49.0¢	-50.00	$24.5
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	DancewithRisk	Yes / 49.8¢	-4,242.79	$2.11K
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 cedriss	No / 49.0¢	-250.00	$123
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 Parad0x658	No / 49.0¢	-3,942.79	$1.93K
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 e46m3	No / 99.5¢	+9.00	$8.96
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 0x6ffd...82cdbc	Yes / 0.5¢	+9.00	$0.04
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 e46m3	No / 99.5¢	+100.00	$99.5
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44.	Yes / 0.5¢	+100.00	$0.5
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 0x141DC90b5E77674587890DFB8E7DaEAC02ABA115-1775683426687	Yes / 5.0¢	+586.51	$29.3
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 eeeeeeret	Yes / 4.8¢	-586.51	$27.9
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 4-testfollower-hm7	Yes / 4.8¢	-5.00	$0.24
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 eeeeeeret	Yes / 5.0¢	+5.00	$0.25
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 AJSV	Yes / 49.0¢	-117.24	$57.4
38m	Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Corlys	No / 99.9¢	+43.50	$43.5
38m	Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	AlAhmeda	Yes / 0.1¢	+2.10	$0
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 Bigggggggg	No / 99.6¢	+104.00	$104
38m	Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Corlys	No / 99.8¢	+43.50	$43.4
38m	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 godblessme2026	No / 56.0¢	+75.00	$42.9
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Corlys	No / 99.6¢	+43.50	$43.3
38m	Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 0x8dc4...195c9a	Yes / 0.2¢	+1.92	$0
38m	Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Corlys	No / 99.8¢	+43.50	$43.4
38m	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 AiBird	Yes / 44.0¢	+104.00	$45.8
38m	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 AiBird	Yes / 44.0¢	+43.50	$19.1
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 flexer78	Yes / 1.6¢	+13.09	$0.21
38m	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Corlys	No / 56.0¢	+43.50	$24.9
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Corlys	No / 49.0¢	+14.50	$7.11
38m	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Novus0rdoSeclorum	No / 56.0¢	+121.82	$69.7
38m	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 GreenYoshi	No / 49.0¢	+50.00	$24.5
38m	Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	ultralisk	Yes / 0.2¢	+231.81	$0.46
38m	Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	0 TENETENET	Yes / 0.1¢	+7.58	$0.01

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

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Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

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Recent trades

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

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Markets

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Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Probability history

Probability history

Markets

Recent trades

Recent trades

Recent trades

Probability history