mustbethewater +$249K PnL

Struct Trades WS is 2.6s faster than Polymarket's RTDS feedRead the benchmark

Explorer

Loading open positions...

Volume

Fees

Trades

Avg trade size

					Merge
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 29? NoWeather 0.77 shares	71.0¢ / 67.0¢	$44.4 (8103.1%)	$35.5 · 1	$0	$0	Jul 29, 2026 2:10 AM
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? Yes 50.00 shares	50.7¢ / 36.0¢	-$7.36 (-29.0%)	$0	$0	$0	Jul 29, 2026 2:10 AM
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meetin… NoPolitics 99.57 shares	15.3¢ / 25.0¢	$18.8K (518.9%)	$4.61K · 694	$220 · 2	$642	Jul 29, 2026 2:10 AM
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? NoFinance 9.89 shares	31.4¢ / 14.6¢	$3.33K (289.5%)	$1.68K · 125	$0	$190	Jul 29, 2026 2:09 AM
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the most seats in… Yes 21.64 shares	0.2¢ / 0.6¢	$0.09 (200.9%)	$0	$0	$0	Jul 29, 2026 2:09 AM
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate… NoEconomics 0.77 shares	71.0¢ / 54.8¢	$39.9 (7275.0%)	$35.5 · 1	$0	$0	Jul 29, 2026 2:09 AM
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? NoPolitics 9.46 shares	22.7¢ / 23.0¢	$843 (258.0%)	$530 · 43	$0	$133	Jul 29, 2026 2:08 AM
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeti… YesPolitics 53.20 shares	27.3¢ / 0.1¢	$641 (80.0%)	$0	$0	$1.44K	Jul 29, 2026 2:08 AM
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December… YesFinance 50.00 shares	22.0¢ / 0.3¢	$31 (70.8%)	$0	$0	$74.5	Jul 29, 2026 2:07 AM
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 29? Yes 100.00 shares	0.5¢ / 39.5¢	$38.9 (7102.4%)	$0	$0	$0	Jul 29, 2026 2:07 AM
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on July 29? Yes 50.00 shares	40.7¢ / 34.0¢	-$3.37 (-16.5%)	$0	$0	$0	Jul 29, 2026 2:07 AM
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the Augu… YesEconomics 49.61 shares	4.1¢ / 3.5¢	-$0.12 (-5.8%)	$0	$0	$0.2	Jul 29, 2026 2:07 AM
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meet… YesPolitics 51.88 shares	10.5¢ / 0.4¢	$1.04K (366.6%)	$0	$0	$1.33K	Jul 29, 2026 2:06 AM
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 29? YesWeather 99.84 shares	2.6¢ / 0.5¢	-$2.06 (-78.1%)	$0	$0	$0.08	Jul 29, 2026 2:06 AM
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 29? NoWeather 0.98 shares	63.2¢ / 38.0¢	$41.4 (6663.4%)	$31.6 · 1	$0	$0	Jul 29, 2026 2:05 AM
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeti… YesPolitics 15.91 shares	33.0¢ / 23.8¢	$569 (51.1%)	$0	$0	$1.68K	Jul 29, 2026 2:05 AM
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? NoCulture 18.17 shares	26.0¢ / 42.0¢	$348 (503.7%)	$138 · 20	$0	$0	Jul 29, 2026 2:04 AM
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 40.00 shares	815.1¢ / 10.0¢	-$322 (-98.8%)	$0	$0	$0	Jul 29, 2026 2:04 AM
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decembe… YesFinance 50.00 shares	98.8¢ / 0.4¢	-$148 (-59.4%)	$0	$0	$101	Jul 29, 2026 2:04 AM
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in… YesCulture 30.49 shares	188.7¢ / 34.9¢	-$75.2 (-78.3%)	$0	$0	$10.2	Jul 29, 2026 2:03 AM
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 29? NoWeather 0.46 shares	82.7¢ / 92.0¢	$44.5 (11602.9%)	$41.4 · 1	$0	$0	Jul 29, 2026 2:03 AM
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? YesPolitics 149.22 shares	385.1¢ / 3.3¢	-$1.1K (-92.9%)	$0	$0	$78.7	Jul 29, 2026 2:03 AM
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 29? YesWeather 98.83 shares	22.9¢ / 56.3¢	$33.3 (145.5%)	$0	$0	$0.58	Jul 29, 2026 2:03 AM
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 20… NoEconomics 7.52 shares	12.5¢ / 7.0¢	$119 (1474.2%)	$26.5 · 6	$0	$0	Jul 29, 2026 2:02 AM
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary electio… Yes 21.64 shares	0.1¢ / 0.2¢	$0.02 (100.6%)	$0	$0	$0	Jul 29, 2026 2:02 AM

Market	Entry / Current	PnL	Buys	Sells	Merge	Last Active
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? WonNoTech	17.7¢ / 0.0¢	$9.31K (462.3%)	$2.53K · 782	$0	$749	Jun 30, 2026 7:24 PM
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? WonNoSports	10.4¢ / 100.0¢	$5.67K (1231.9%)	$827 · 181	$0	$149	Jul 20, 2026 12:39 AM
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeti… WonNoPolitics	6.6¢ / 0.0¢	$5.56K (1894.3%)	$556 · 244	$7.74 · 1	$590	Apr 29, 2026 9:27 PM
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meetin… WonNoPolitics	22.7¢ / 0.0¢	$5.29K (472.2%)	$1.92K · 319	$34 · 4	$87.8	Jun 17, 2026 9:09 PM
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? WonNoPolitics	27.5¢ / 0.0¢	$5.25K (303.0%)	$2.71K · 364	$9.2 · 1	$467	May 9, 2026 11:39 PM
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? WonNoSports	64.1¢ / 100.0¢	$4.73K (90.4%)	$7.78K · 102	$0	$561	Jul 15, 2026 12:11 AM
Exact Score: Any Other Score? WonNoSports	58.8¢ / 0.0¢	$4.19K (110.5%)	$6.52K · 137	$0	$178	Jul 7, 2026 2:21 AM
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election WonNoPolitics	30.3¢ / 100.0¢	$4.09K (116.4%)	$4.02K · 345	$0	$954	Jun 4, 2026 8:07 AM
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? WonNoPolitics	22.3¢ / 0.0¢	$3.9K (312.7%)	$1.91K · 211	$0	$240	Jun 19, 2026 5:06 AM
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30… WonNoFinance	10.7¢ / 0.0¢	$3.87K (905.0%)	$620 · 219	$2.9 · 2	$224	Jun 30, 2026 11:19 PM
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? WonNoTech	14.4¢ / 0.0¢	$3.78K (723.8%)	$798 · 156	$0	$214	Apr 30, 2026 8:00 PM
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? WonNoMentions	18.7¢ / 100.0¢	$3.48K (391.9%)	$1.2K · 142	$0	$195	Jun 13, 2026 6:10 PM
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Award… WonNoCulture	22.5¢ / 0.0¢	$3.28K (600.7%)	$1.02K · 171	$0	$24.8	Mar 16, 2026 6:42 AM
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Belgium? WonNoSports	72.0¢ / 100.0¢	$3.28K (68.4%)	$7.87K · 137	$0	$309	Jul 7, 2026 2:11 AM
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? WonNoSports	37.5¢ / 0.0¢	$3.22K (283.1%)	$2.19K · 56	$0	$70.1	Jul 12, 2026 10:22 PM
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamenta… WonNoPolitics	63.4¢ / 65.3¢	$3.13K (65.1%)	$6.36K · 184	$8.24 · 1	$652	Jul 28, 2026 11:59 AM
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? WonNoSports	36.1¢ / 0.0¢	$3.01K (180.7%)	$3K · 156	$0	$241	Jul 20, 2026 12:24 AM
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? WonNoSports	84.1¢ / 100.0¢	$2.96K (34.0%)	$12.3K · 121	$2.19K · 22	$451	Jul 20, 2026 1:29 AM
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? WonNoTech	33.3¢ / 0.0¢	$2.83K (340.3%)	$1.44K · 135	$0	$128	May 31, 2026 9:09 PM
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? WonNoTech	99.9¢ / 99.9¢	$2.82K (55.0%)	$8.91K · 114	$0	$326	Jul 26, 2026 5:26 PM
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? WonNoTech	99.9¢ / 99.9¢	$2.79K (56.9%)	$8.61K · 112	$0	$326	Jul 27, 2026 8:59 AM
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on l… WonNoFinance	29.0¢ / 0.0¢	$2.55K (334.9%)	$1.42K · 57	$0	$132	Jun 30, 2026 10:34 PM
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? WonNoCulture	63.4¢ / 100.0¢	$2.53K (74.9%)	$5.04K · 302	$0	$126	Mar 16, 2026 9:26 AM
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? WonNoCulture	47.0¢ / 0.0¢	$2.49K (76.0%)	$3.87K · 266	$55.6 · 4	$786	Mar 16, 2026 6:26 AM
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? WonNoTech	99.9¢ / 99.9¢	$2.49K (49.9%)	$8.46K · 109	$0	$387	Jul 27, 2026 12:03 AM

mustbethewater +$249K PnL · Polymarket

PnL Calendar

July 2026

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

1$3.86K

Jul 1, 2026

Daily PnL

$3.86K

Open$200K

High$204K

Low$200K

Close$204K

Open positions3,994

USD balance$4.92K

2$962

Jul 2, 2026

Daily PnL

$962

Open$204K

High$205K

Low$204K

Close$205K

Open positions3,955

USD balance$4.58K

3$2.66K

Jul 3, 2026

Daily PnL

$2.66K

Open$205K

High$208K

Low$205K

Close$207K

Open positions4,117

USD balance$4.46K

4$359

Jul 4, 2026

Daily PnL

$359

Open$207K

High$208K

Low$207K

Close$208K

Open positions4,155

USD balance$2.81K

5$3.59K

Jul 5, 2026

Daily PnL

$3.59K

Open$208K

High$212K

Low$208K

Close$211K

Open positions4,218

USD balance$3.55K

6$1.61K

Jul 6, 2026

Daily PnL

$1.61K

Open$211K

High$213K

Low$211K

Close$213K

Open positions4,150

USD balance$3.78K

7$1.9K

Jul 7, 2026

Daily PnL

$1.9K

Open$213K

High$215K

Low$213K

Close$215K

Open positions4,126

USD balance$3.53K

8$7.91K

Jul 8, 2026

Daily PnL

$7.91K

Open$215K

High$223K

Low$215K

Close$223K

Open positions4,219

USD balance$2.65K

9$4.38K

Jul 9, 2026

Daily PnL

$4.38K

Open$223K

High$227K

Low$223K

Close$227K

Open positions4,365

USD balance$4.75K

10$1.92K

Jul 10, 2026

Daily PnL

$1.92K

Open$227K

High$229K

Low$227K

Close$229K

Open positions4,312

USD balance$4.23K

11$619

Jul 11, 2026

Daily PnL

$619

Open$229K

High$230K

Low$229K

Close$230K

Open positions4,331

USD balance$5.12K

12$1.18K

Jul 12, 2026

Daily PnL

$1.18K

Open$230K

High$231K

Low$230K

Close$231K

Open positions4,290

USD balance$6.15K

13$1.08K

Jul 13, 2026

Daily PnL

$1.08K

Open$231K

High$232K

Low$231K

Close$232K

Open positions4,461

USD balance$234

14$95.4

Jul 14, 2026

Daily PnL

$95.4

Open$232K

High$232K

Low$232K

Close$232K

Open positions4,424

USD balance$490

15$461

Jul 15, 2026

Daily PnL

$461

Open$232K

High$233K

Low$232K

Close$233K

Open positions4,436

USD balance$1.55K

16$1.27K

Jul 16, 2026

Daily PnL

$1.27K

Open$233K

High$234K

Low$233K

Close$234K

Open positions4,592

USD balance$1.51K

17$1.46K

Jul 17, 2026

Daily PnL

$1.46K

Open$234K

High$235K

Low$234K

Close$235K

Open positions4,889

USD balance$1.5K

18$561

Jul 18, 2026

Daily PnL

$561

Open$235K

High$236K

Low$235K

Close$236K

Open positions5,166

USD balance$1.5K

19$3.87K

Jul 19, 2026

Daily PnL

$3.87K

Open$236K

High$240K

Low$236K

Close$240K

Open positions5,497

USD balance$1.14K

20$1.97K

Jul 20, 2026

Daily PnL

$1.97K

Open$240K

High$242K

Low$240K

Close$242K

Open positions5,082

USD balance$3.09K

21$2.15K

Jul 21, 2026

Daily PnL

$2.15K

Open$242K

High$244K

Low$242K

Close$244K

Open positions5,152

USD balance$219

22$797

Jul 22, 2026

Daily PnL

$797

Open$244K

High$245K

Low$244K

Close$245K

Open positions5,281

USD balance$2.14K

23$232

Jul 23, 2026

Daily PnL

$232

Open$245K

High$245K

Low$245K

Close$245K

Open positions5,200

USD balance$2.41K

24$844

Jul 24, 2026

Daily PnL

$844

Open$245K

High$246K

Low$245K

Close$246K

Open positions5,282

USD balance$2.01K

25$310

Jul 25, 2026

Daily PnL

$310

Open$246K

High$246K

Low$246K

Close$246K

Open positions5,505

USD balance$1.96K

26$1.31K

Jul 26, 2026

Daily PnL

$1.31K

Open$246K

High$247K

Low$246K

Close$247K

Open positions5,697

USD balance$0

27$1.19K

Jul 27, 2026

Daily PnL

$1.19K

Open$247K

High$249K

Low$247K

Close$249K

Open positions5,803

USD balance$1.52K

28$117

Jul 28, 2026

Daily PnL

$117

Open$249K

High$249K

Low$249K

Close$249K

Open positions5,535

USD balance$0

29$27.9

Jul 29, 2026

Daily PnL

$27.9

Open$249K

High$249K

Low$249K

Close$249K

Open positions5,535

USD balance$0

Performance Summary

PnL Change

1D $1387D $4.76K30D $48.7K

Markets

22477

Won

22265

Lost

4122

Combos

Win Rate

84.4%

Profit Factor

7.19x

Avg Win

$62

Avg Loss

-$46.5

Total Wins

$1.38M

Total Losses

-$192K

Avg. Hold Time

11d 23h 18m 39s

Best Win

$7.18K

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Worst Loss

-$3.73K

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Period

Best Period

$24.5K, Jun 16 – Jun 22

Worst Period

-$95.1, Nov 1 – Nov 7

Longest Streak

33d W / 6d L

Current Streak

29d W

Max Drawdown

-$403 (-0.3%)

Current DD

$0 (0.0%)

Max Runup

$249K (378464.0%)

Rebates

$804(74)

Rewards

$541(94)

Yield

$0.06(19)

mustbethewater

Analytics

Analytics

mustbethewater

mustbethewater

Analytics

Volume (USD)

Yes vs No volume

Yes vs No trades

Avg trade size

Notional volume

Buy size distribution

Fees

Trade types

Volume

Yes vs No volume

Yes vs No trades

Avg trade size

Notional volume

Buy size distribution

Fees

Trade types

Analytics

Volume (USD)

Yes vs No volume

Yes vs No trades

Avg trade size

Notional volume

Buy size distribution

Fees

Trade types

mustbethewater

Trader DNA

Trader DNA