Lucas-alpha Polymarket Trader

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Volume

Fees

Trades

Avg trade size

					Merge
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? YesSports 91.74 shares	10.9¢ / 15.6¢	$4.31 (43.1%)	$10 · 1	$0	$0	Jun 14, 2026 12:45 AM
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? YesSports 263.16 shares	1.9¢ / 1.9¢	$0.11 (2.2%)	$5 · 1	$0	$0	Jun 14, 2026 12:45 AM
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? YesSports 147.06 shares	3.4¢ / 4.9¢	$2.21 (44.1%)	$5 · 1	$0	$0	Jun 14, 2026 12:45 AM
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? NoSports 7.94 shares	63.0¢ / 9.8¢	-$4.22 (-84.4%)	$5 · 1	$0	$0	Jun 14, 2026 12:43 AM
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? NoPolitics 2.70 shares	74.7¢ / 72.0¢	-$0.07 (-3.6%)	$2 · 2	$0	$0	Jun 14, 2026 12:40 AM
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? YesSports 294.12 shares	1.7¢ / 2.4¢	$2.06 (41.2%)	$5 · 1	$0	$0	Jun 14, 2026 12:40 AM
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? YesSports 312.50 shares	1.6¢ / 0.8¢	-$2.57 (-51.5%)	$5 · 1	$0	$0	Jun 14, 2026 12:39 AM
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? YesSports 384.62 shares	1.3¢ / 0.8¢	-$1.92 (-38.5%)	$5 · 1	$0	$0	Jun 14, 2026 12:37 AM

Market	Entry / Current	PnL	Buys	Sells	Merge	Last Active
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22? WonNoWeather	76.1¢ / 100.0¢	$14.8 (29.6%)	$50 · 1	$64.8 · 1	$0	Mar 23, 2026 12:50 PM
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8? WonYesWeather	27.8¢ / 100.0¢	$10.3 (171.9%)	$6 · 3	$16 · 4	$0.27	Mar 10, 2026 12:07 PM
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15? WonYesWeather	64.0¢ / 100.0¢	$9.57 (41.6%)	$23 · 10	$32.6 · 2	$0	Mar 16, 2026 7:31 AM
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22? WonYesWeather	66.0¢ / 0.0¢	$8.33 (16.7%)	$50 · 1	$58.3 · 1	$0	Mar 23, 2026 1:39 PM
Will Trump shake hands with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the World Economic Forum? WonNoPolitics	15.4¢ / 0.0¢	$4.81 (120.3%)	$4 · 2	$8.81 · 1	$0	Jan 22, 2026 5:25 PM
Will Keir Starmer say "International" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? WonNoMentions	22.0¢ / 100.0¢	$3.5 (350.0%)	$1 · 1	$4.49 · 2	$0	Feb 11, 2026 2:51 PM
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8? WonYesWeather	27.4¢ / 0.0¢	$1.64 (82.2%)	$2 · 2	$3.06 · 7	$0.59	Mar 10, 2026 12:10 PM
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8? WonNoWeather	41.8¢ / 100.0¢	$1.57 (78.3%)	$2 · 2	$2.98 · 2	$0.59	Mar 10, 2026 12:10 PM
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET WonUpCrypto	58.9¢ / 100.0¢	$1.55 (69.9%)	$2.19 · 2	$0	$0	Jan 18, 2026 4:06 PM
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? WonYesSports	47.0¢ / 100.0¢	$1.13 (112.8%)	$1 · 1	$0	$0	Apr 1, 2026 6:05 AM
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET WonDownCrypto	48.8¢ / 100.0¢	$1.05 (105.1%)	$0.98 · 1	$0	$0	Feb 12, 2026 9:15 AM
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET WonDownCrypto	87.4¢ / 100.0¢	$1.01 (14.4%)	$6.98 · 2	$0	$0	Jan 19, 2026 7:01 PM
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19? WonYesWeather	— / 100.0¢	$0.98	$0	$0.98 · 1	$0	Jun 13, 2026 10:23 PM
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19? WonNoWeather	— / 100.0¢	$0.97	$0	$0.97 · 3	$0	Apr 20, 2026 5:32 PM
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1? WonYesWeather	58.0¢ / 100.0¢	$0.72 (72.4%)	$1 · 1	$0	$0	Mar 4, 2026 6:49 PM
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET WonDownCrypto	45.8¢ / 0.0¢	$0.61 (29.8%)	$1.97 · 2	$2.64 · 2	$0	Jan 19, 2026 9:46 PM
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET WonDownCrypto	50.5¢ / 100.0¢	$0.48 (46.9%)	$0.98 · 1	$1.48 · 1	$0	Jan 18, 2026 8:45 PM
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15? WonNoWeather	70.6¢ / 100.0¢	$0.47 (23.7%)	$2 · 2	$2.47 · 2	$0	Mar 16, 2026 7:31 AM
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1? WonNoWeather	70.0¢ / 100.0¢	$0.43 (42.9%)	$1 · 1	$0	$0	Mar 4, 2026 6:49 PM
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET WonUpCrypto	70.8¢ / 100.0¢	$0.41 (41.3%)	$0.99 · 1	$0	$0	Feb 12, 2026 9:15 AM
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET WonDownCrypto	52.6¢ / 100.0¢	$0.34 (33.1%)	$0.98 · 1	$1.35 · 1	$0	Apr 1, 2026 6:11 AM
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8? WonNoWeather	60.2¢ / 0.0¢	$0.25 (12.3%)	$2 · 2	$1.97 · 3	$0.27	Mar 10, 2026 12:07 PM
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET WonUpCrypto	95.1¢ / 100.0¢	$0.21 (5.2%)	$4 · 1	$0	$0	Jan 19, 2026 9:09 PM
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET WonUpCrypto	82.5¢ / 0.0¢	$0.15 (14.9%)	$0.99 · 1	$1.15 · 1	$0	Jan 19, 2026 9:16 PM
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5? WonNoWeather	94.7¢ / 100.0¢	$0.11 (5.4%)	$2 · 2	$2.11 · 2	$0	Apr 6, 2026 6:55 AM

Lucas-alpha Polymarket Trader

PnL Calendar

June 2026

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

1$1.29

Jun 1, 2026

Daily PnL

$1.29

Open-$69.1

High-$67.3

Low-$70.9

Close-$67.8

Open positions7

USD balance$0

2$0.53

Jun 2, 2026

Daily PnL

$0.53

Open-$67.8

High-$66.9

Low-$69.9

Close-$67.3

Open positions7

USD balance$258

3-$1.19

Jun 3, 2026

Daily PnL

-$1.19

Open-$67.3

High-$66.9

Low-$69.6

Close-$68.5

Open positions7

USD balance$258

4-$0.45

Jun 4, 2026

Daily PnL

-$0.45

Open-$68.5

High-$66.9

Low-$69.9

Close-$69

Open positions7

USD balance$258

5$0.31

Jun 5, 2026

Daily PnL

$0.31

Open-$69

High-$67.5

Low-$70.6

Close-$68.6

Open positions7

USD balance$0

6$0.22

Jun 6, 2026

Daily PnL

$0.22

Open-$68.6

High-$67.4

Low-$70.1

Close-$68.4

Open positions7

USD balance$258

7$1.52

Jun 7, 2026

Daily PnL

$1.52

Open-$68.4

High-$66.8

Low-$70.4

Close-$66.9

Open positions7

USD balance$258

8$0.25

Jun 8, 2026

Daily PnL

$0.25

Open-$66.9

High-$65.3

Low-$68.7

Close-$66.6

Open positions7

USD balance$258

9-$1.48

Jun 9, 2026

Daily PnL

-$1.48

Open-$66.6

High-$66

Low-$69.2

Close-$68.1

Open positions7

USD balance$258

10-$0.38

Jun 10, 2026

Daily PnL

-$0.38

Open-$68.1

High-$66.7

Low-$70.3

Close-$68.5

Open positions7

USD balance$257

11-$0.91

Jun 11, 2026

Daily PnL

-$0.91

Open-$68.5

High-$68.3

Low-$71.9

Close-$69.4

Open positions7

USD balance$0

12$0.25

Jun 12, 2026

Daily PnL

$0.25

Open-$69.4

High-$67.1

Low-$71.7

Close-$69.2

Open positions7

USD balance$0

13$1.25

Jun 13, 2026

Daily PnL

$1.25

Open-$69.2

High-$66

Low-$70.9

Close-$67.9

Open positions8

USD balance$0

14$0.28

Jun 14, 2026

Daily PnL

$0.28

Open-$67.9

High-$66.5

Low-$68.5

Close-$67.6

Open positions8

USD balance$254

Performance Summary

PnL Change

1D $1.557D $2.1830D $0.14

Markets

Won

Lost

Win Rate

61.9%

Profit Factor

1.79x

Avg Win

$1.61

Avg Loss

-$1.47

Total Wins

$41.9

Total Losses

-$23.5

Avg. Hold Time

22d 21h 25m 17s

Best Win

$10.6

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?

Worst Loss

-$41.4

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22?

Period

Best Period

$36.1, Mar 13 – Mar 19

Worst Period

-$82.5, Mar 19 – Mar 25

Longest Streak

10d W / 4d L

Current Streak

3d W

Max Drawdown

-$99.2 (-342.9%)

Current DD

-$96.6 (-333.7%)

Max Runup

$54.6 (212.7%)

Rebates

Rewards

Yield

$0.26(77)

Lucas-alpha

Analytics

Lucas-alpha

Analytics

Lucas-alpha

Analytics

Volume (USD)

Yes vs No volume

Yes vs No trades

Avg trade size

Shares traded

Buy size distribution

Fees

Trade types

Volume

Yes vs No volume

Yes vs No trades

Avg trade size

Shares traded

Buy size distribution

Fees

Trade types

Lucas-alpha

Trader DNA

Analytics

Volume (USD)

Yes vs No volume

Yes vs No trades

Avg trade size

Shares traded

Buy size distribution

Fees

Trade types

Trader DNA