Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
ActiveVolume
$569K
Txns
5,169
Traders
983
Fees
$59
Liquidity
$13,805
Ends
Jun 30, 2026
Volume
$569K
Txns
5,169
Traders
983
Fees
$59
Liquidity
$13,805
Ends
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10h | iliabouchouev | No / 99.0¢ | -8.99 | $8.9 | |
| 10h | 0xee67...0e67a6 | Yes / 1.0¢ | -8.99 | $0.09 | |
| 18h | BSS37 | Yes / 1.0¢ | -100.00 | $1 | |
| 18h | 0xee67...0e67a6 | Yes / 1.0¢ | -623.85 | $6.24 | |
| 18h | Jjw | No / 99.0¢ | -723.85 | $716 | |
| 1d | Wojtek | Yes / 1.0¢ | +492.42 | $4.92 | |
| 1d | 0x6b0e...46e3ea | Yes / 0.3¢ | +302.72 | $0.91 | |
| 1d | ololololololo | No / 99.5¢ | -52.00 | $51.7 | |
| 1d | yaloh | No / 99.5¢ | -52.00 | $51.7 | |
| 1d | obamaosama | Yes / 0.6¢ | -2,891.74 | $16.2 | |
| 1d | Wojtek | Yes / 0.3¢ | +1,000.00 | $3 | |
| 1d | candy-step | No / 99.5¢ | -52.00 | $51.7 | |
| 1d | le-fish-in-chocolate | No / 99.5¢ | -52.00 | $51.7 | |
| 1d | HE-HAS-RETURNED | No / 99.5¢ | -52.00 | $51.7 | |
| 1d | acal | Yes / 1.0¢ | +200.00 | $2 | |
| 1d | PPMT | No / 98.9¢ | -30.60 | $30.3 | |
| 1d | uncle-stepa | No / 99.5¢ | -52.00 | $51.7 | |
| 1d | alexkrg | Yes / 1.0¢ | +111.00 | $1.11 | |
| 1d | duality-by-slipknot | No / 99.5¢ | -52.00 | $51.7 | |
| 1d | krokant | No / 99.5¢ | -52.00 | $51.7 | |
| 1d | ultralisk | Yes / 0.6¢ | +228.00 | $1.37 | |
| 1d | alexkrg | Yes / 1.0¢ | +111.00 | $1.11 | |
| 1d | 0xee67...0e67a6 | Yes / 2.3¢ | -1.22 | $0.03 | |
| 1d | 0x3CFf61C9A93C80B02081c7859853e701BbF76fBd-1780459443269 | No / 97.6¢ | -1.22 | $1.19 | |
| 1d | PPMT | No / 97.9¢ | +30.00 | $29.4 |
1–25
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Yes 94%$3.17Mvolume
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Yes 89%$1.85Mvolume
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
No 100%$2.86Mvolume
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
No 100%$641Kvolume
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
No 98%$226Kvolume
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
No 98%$802Kvolume