
Volume
$1K
Txns
172
Traders
58
Fees
$3
Liquidity
$2,161
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Trades
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Yes 100%$23.5Mvolume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
No 100%$8.32Mvolume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
No 79%$21.7Mvolume
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
No 100%$11.8Mvolume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Yes 57%$5.13Mvolume
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Yes 84%$1.71Mvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21d | VonVyaak | Yes / 7.2¢ | -5.00 | $0.36 | |
| 21d | 25oodksmsss09 | Yes / 7.2¢ | -5.00 | $0.36 | |
| 21d | 0xe7952335816D6236573E0Fe0b174de7d41796879-1771524443260 | Yes / 7.1¢ | -9.43 | $0.67 | |
| 21d | 0x58820cFc9b65F8b3b87bF8a79D8C6D79b1BA55a2-1774143786264 | No / 92.6¢ | -19.43 | $18 | |
| 24d | niglette | Yes / 1.4¢ | +29.90 | $0.42 | |
| 24d | gendan-ceshi | Yes / 1.3¢ | -29.90 | $0.4 | |
| 27d | 0xCe3c3923221a92EEd5C6f32d38171200E6ab7df3-1772990973099 | Yes / 7.1¢ | +14.16 | $1.04 | |
| 27d | 25oodksmsss09 | Yes / 7.1¢ | -3.02 | $0.21 | |
| 27d | 0xe7952335816D6236573E0Fe0b174de7d41796879-1771524443260 | Yes / 7.1¢ | -5.57 | $0.4 | |
| 27d | 0xe7952335816D6236573E0Fe0b174de7d41796879-1771524443260 | Yes / 7.0¢ | -5.57 | $0.39 | |
| 27d | gendan-ceshi | Yes / 5.3¢ | +8.90 | $0.47 | |
| 27d | Colala | Yes / 5.1¢ | -8.90 | $0.45 | |
| 27d | gendan-ceshi | Yes / 4.1¢ | +12.00 | $0.49 | |
| 27d | Colala | Yes / 3.9¢ | -12.00 | $0.47 | |
| 28d | Colala | Yes / 5.8¢ | -9.00 | $0.52 | |
| 28d | gendan-ceshi | Yes / 6.0¢ | +9.00 | $0.54 | |
| 29d | 09F911029D74 | No / 99.0¢ | -5.00 | $4.95 | |
| 29d | 0xe7952335816D6236573E0Fe0b174de7d41796879-1771524443260 | Yes / 0.8¢ | +5.96 | $0.05 | |
| 29d | yuuk | Yes / 0.7¢ | +7.10 | $0.05 | |
| 29d | ojnsdf8 | Yes / 0.8¢ | -18.06 | $0.14 | |
| 1mo | bobbet | Yes / 0.9¢ | -83.77 | $0.74 | |
| 1mo | Colala | Yes / 1.0¢ | +14.50 | $0.14 | |
| 1mo | niglette | Yes / 0.9¢ | +69.27 | $0.62 | |
| 1mo | Colala | Yes / 2.1¢ | +15.43 | $0.32 | |
| 1mo | VonVyaak | Yes / 2.2¢ | +5.00 | $0.11 |
1–25