Will Trump raise or lower tariffs on China first?

This market will resolve to “Raise” if between April 9, 2025, 6:00 PM ET and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET Donald Trump announces he will increase or impose additional tariffs on China prior to announcing he will pause, delay, remove or lower tariffs on China. This market will resolve to “Lower” if between April 9, 2025, 6:00 PM ET and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET Donald Trump announces he will pause, delay, remove or lower tariffs on China prior to announcing he will increase or impose additional tariffs on China. If Trump does not raise or lower tariffs by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Trump announces that he will raise and lower tariffs in a single statement (“We are lowering the general tariff to 40% and adding an additional tariff on Chinese steel”), this market will resolve to 50-50. Only tariffs specifically targeting China will qualify. For example, changes to the global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Any action which is announced within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of if or when the tariffs go into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.