Will Trump lead by 0.5-0.9 points on August 16?

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of August 16, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the RCP Polling Average margin is between Trump +0.5 (inclusive) and Trump +0.9 (inclusive) percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The RCP Polling Average will be checked on August 16, 12:00 PM ET. Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used. If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by August 19, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of August 16, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.