Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces a halt, suspension, cancellation, or prohibition on any arms sales or military equipment transfers to Taiwan between market creation and May 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must specifically refer to the transfer of arms, weapons, munitions, military equipment, or substantially equivalent military goods from the United States to Taiwan. A qualifying announcement may apply to all such transfers to Taiwan or only to specified categories of arms, weapons or military equipment. Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Halts, suspensions, cancellations, or prohibitions on arms sales or military equipment transfers announced as part of a mutual agreement or deal between the United States and China will qualify. Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced action goes into effect. The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.