Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the National Assembly?

French legislative elections are are scheduled for June 30 and July 7, 2024. Elections for the National Assembly, which is the lower house of France's bicameral parliament, are conducted over 2 rounds of voting. A single representative is chosen for each of 577 constituencies, and the sum total of representatives makes up the National Assembly. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Socialist Party (Parti socialiste) wins the most seats in the National Assembly as a result of the next French legislative election. If voting in the next French legislative election does not occur by December 31, 2024, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Socialist Party, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Government, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.