Will the Social Democrats’ Popular Vote Margin of Victory in the 2026 Denmark Parliamentary Election be between 10% and 15%?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Denmark on March 24, 2026. Denmark uses a proportional representation electoral system in which voters cast a single vote that may be given either to a specific candidate or to a political party list, with seats allocated proportionally based on the total votes received by each party. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of votes in this election. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election in Denmark proper. This market will resolve solely based on the total number of valid votes received by each political party nationwide in this election, based solely on the results from Denmark proper, excluding the results and eligible voter counts from Greenland and the Faroe Islands. Votes cast for individual candidates will count toward the total of the respective candidate’s political party. If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes nationwide in this election, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Danish government sources such as the Ministry of Interior and Health (https://www.valg.im.dk/) and Statistics Denmark (https://www.dst.dk/en).