
Volume
$38K
Txns
1,032
Traders
171
Fees
$0
Ends
Oct 31, 2024
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2024 shows an increase of between 1.17°C (inclusive) and 1.22°C (inclusive) when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of between 1.17°C and 1.22°C for October 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for October 2024 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "October" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2024 is provided by NASA by February 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1y | efren1983 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +10,000.00 | $10 | |
| 1y | Anjun | Yes / 0.1¢ | -13,631.12 | $13.6 | |
| 1y | LBZcapital | Yes / 0.1¢ | +500.00 | $0.5 | |
| 1y | BabyYoda12 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +2,856.12 | $2.86 | |
| 1y | Faer | Yes / 0.1¢ | +141.00 | $0.14 | |
| 1y | alert | Yes / 0.1¢ | +134.00 | $0.13 | |
| 1y | BabyYoda12 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +2,049.46 | $2.05 | |
| 1y | chifcheliusup | Yes / 0.2¢ | +172.54 | $0.35 | |
| 1y | Car | No / 99.9¢ | +2,222.00 | $2.22K | |
| 1y | chifcheliusup | Yes / 0.2¢ | +27.46 | $0.05 | |
| 1y | qrpenc | Yes / 0.2¢ | -27.46 | $0.05 | |
| 1y | chifcheliusup | Yes / 0.2¢ | +500.00 | $1 | |
| 1y | cigarettes | No / 99.8¢ | +500.00 | $499 | |
| 1y | chifcheliusup | Yes / 0.2¢ | +300.00 | $0.6 | |
| 1y | cigarettes | No / 99.8¢ | +550.00 | $549 | |
| 1y | daroghi | Yes / 0.2¢ | +250.00 | $0.5 | |
| 1y | tammyl | Yes / 0.5¢ | +19.00 | $0.1 | |
| 1y | daroghi | Yes / 0.5¢ | -14.02 | $0.07 | |
| 1y | efren1983 | Yes / 0.6¢ | -4.98 | $0.03 | |
| 1y | BabyYoda12 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +2,000.00 | $2 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | Yes / 0.1¢ | -2,000.00 | $2 | |
| 1y | Syrenka | No / 99.9¢ | +24.02 | $24 | |
| 1y | BabyYoda12 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +24.02 | $0.02 | |
| 1y | dwadwa | No / 99.8¢ | +14.03 | $14 | |
| 1y | daroghi | Yes / 0.2¢ | +14.03 | $0.03 |
1–25
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?
Yes 53%$34.3Kvolume
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
No 90%$98.8Kvolume
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
No 73%$335Kvolume
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers?
No 74%$3.14Kvolume
Natural Disaster in 2026?
No 80%$212Kvolume
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers?
No 92%$798volume