
Volume
$224K
Txns
3,566
Traders
357
Fees
$0
Ends
Nov 30, 2024
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2024 shows an increase of between 1.35°C (inclusive) 1.39°C (inclusive) and when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of between 1.35°C and 1.39°C for November 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for November 2024 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Nov" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2024 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1y | Mozgoprav | Yes / 0.1¢ | +100.00 | $0.1 | |
| 1y | aenews2 | Yes / 0.1¢ | -100.00 | $0.1 | |
| 1y | cigarettes | No / 99.9¢ | +50.00 | $50 | |
| 1y | sorcerer.money | No / 99.9¢ | -1,665.63 | $1.66K | |
| 1y | aenews2 | Yes / 0.1¢ | -355.63 | $0.36 | |
| 1y | Schorle65 | Yes / 0.1¢ | -1,260.00 | $1.26 | |
| 1y | Schorle65 | Yes / 0.1¢ | -50.00 | $0.05 | |
| 1y | notebookled | Yes / 0.1¢ | +50.00 | $0.05 | |
| 1y | Bot9735 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +17.09 | $0.02 | |
| 1y | cigarettes | No / 99.9¢ | +17.09 | $17.1 | |
| 1y | Bot9735 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +515.12 | $0.52 | |
| 1y | cigarettes | No / 99.9¢ | +515.12 | $515 | |
| 1y | Bot9735 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +93.96 | $0.09 | |
| 1y | wokerjoesleeper | No / 99.9¢ | +93.96 | $93.9 | |
| 1y | Bot9735 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +1,006.59 | $1.01 | |
| 1y | Schorle65 | Yes / 0.1¢ | -1,006.59 | $1.01 | |
| 1y | ImHereForTheRewards | No / 99.8¢ | -107.18 | $107 | |
| 1y | wokerjoesleeper | Yes / 0.2¢ | -307.18 | $0.61 | |
| 1y | hasso422 | Yes / 0.2¢ | +200.00 | $0.4 | |
| 1y | retelev | Yes / 0.2¢ | -300.00 | $0.6 | |
| 1y | ImHereForTheRewards | No / 99.8¢ | -300.00 | $299 | |
| 1y | cuno | Yes / 0.3¢ | -1.00 | $0 | |
| 1y | daroghi | No / 99.7¢ | -1.00 | $1 | |
| 1y | hasso422 | Yes / 0.3¢ | +6.07 | $0.02 | |
| 1y | wokerjoesleeper | No / 99.7¢ | +6.07 | $6.05 |
1–25
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
No 65%$335Kvolume
Natural Disaster in 2026?
No 78%$212Kvolume
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
No 90%$98.7Kvolume
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?
No 55%$34.1Kvolume
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers?
No 92%$1.39Kvolume
Category 5 hurricane hits US before election?
No 100%$120Kvolume