
Volume
$144
Txns
16
Traders
7
Fees
$0
Liquidity
$0
Ends
—
This market will resolve according to the score the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Claude model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as "Opus 4.8" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-4.8, claude-opus-4.8-thinking, claude-opus-4.8-preview, or similar). Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, or another non-Opus 4.8 variant will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | 0xC4d68280Bfd7130e5377D6eC8c08716057a45411-1762134201243 | Yes / 7.0¢ | +20.00 | $1.45 | |
| 1h | urakan | No / 93.0¢ | +20.00 | $18.6 | |
| 1h | urakan | No / 93.0¢ | +5.00 | $4.65 | |
| 1h | 0xC4d68280Bfd7130e5377D6eC8c08716057a45411-1762134201243 | Yes / 7.0¢ | +5.00 | $0.36 | |
| 1h | 0xC4d68280Bfd7130e5377D6eC8c08716057a45411-1762134201243 | Yes / 2.0¢ | -25.00 | $0.5 | |
| 1h | urakan | No / 97.9¢ | -25.00 | $24.5 | |
| 1h | balthazar | No / 98.0¢ | +15.00 | $14.7 | |
| 1h | 0xC4d68280Bfd7130e5377D6eC8c08716057a45411-1762134201243 | Yes / 2.0¢ | -5.00 | $0.1 | |
| 1h | richardd | Yes / 2.0¢ | +20.00 | $0.42 | |
| 2h | urakan | No / 91.0¢ | +14.99 | $13.6 | |
| 2h | 0xC4d68280Bfd7130e5377D6eC8c08716057a45411-1762134201243 | Yes / 9.0¢ | +14.99 | $1.4 | |
| 2h | 0xC4d68280Bfd7130e5377D6eC8c08716057a45411-1762134201243 | Yes / 9.0¢ | +13.00 | $1.21 | |
| 2h | urakan | No / 91.0¢ | +13.00 | $11.8 | |
| 2h | The-Joker | No / 88.4¢ | +50.00 | $44.4 | |
| 2h | cchua | Yes / 11.0¢ | +20.00 | $2.2 | |
| 2h | AJSV | Yes / 12.0¢ | +30.00 | $3.6 |
1–16
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?
No 88%$120Kvolume
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?
Yes 89%$91.5Kvolume
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
No 64%$150Kvolume
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Yes 99%$1.35Mvolume
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
No 77%$311Kvolume
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Yes 85%$1.13Mvolume