Will the Long Island Rail Road strike end by May 21, 2026?

On May 16, 2026, Long Island Rail Road workers represented by five unions began a strike against the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA), halting LIRR service systemwide. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Long Island Rail Road strike ends by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The strike will be considered to have ended if an agreement is reached between the MTA and the relevant striking LIRR unions for the striking LIRR workers to return to work systemwide, or if it is otherwise announced by the MTA or the relevant striking LIRR unions that the strike has ended and the striking LIRR workers are returning to work systemwide. A tentative or conditional agreement in which the LIRR workers return to work while negotiations are ongoing will count. Negotiations or agreements which do not include an agreement for the LIRR workers to return to work will not impact this market’s resolution. Negotiations, agreements or announcements allowing for specific subsets of the striking LIRR workers to return to work, but indicate that the strike is still ongoing, will not count. An official announcement of a qualifying agreement or the end of the strike within this market’s timeframe will suffice to resolve this market to “Yes” regardless of when the agreement will go into effect or when the LIRR workers will return to work. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTA and the relevant striking LIRR unions; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.