Will the January 2026 FOMC decision result in a 25bp cut with ≥2 dissents?

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for January 27-28, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on January 28, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. This market will resolve according to both the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the federal funds rate decision, and the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the meeting. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 27-28, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. If the FOMC changes the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by an amount that is within 12.5 basis points of either “No change” or a “25bp cut,” the change will be rounded to the corresponding listed bracket (e.g., a 12.5-bp change is rounded to a 25-bp cut). If any change is announced that is not listed, including any non-standard increment that cannot be rounded to a listed bracket under the rule above, this market will resolve to “Other.” The level and change of the target federal funds rate are also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “Other” bracket. This market will resolve to the combined outcome corresponding to both the rate decision (No change / 25bp cut / Other) and the number of dissents (<2 or ≥2) as expressed in the displayed strike options.