Will the federal government be shut down for 4–9 days in 2025?

This market will resolve according to how many days the U.S. Office of Personnel Management announces that the U.S. federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse in appropriations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM. Days are counted based on notices checked at 10:00 AM ET each day. If the Office of Personnel Management announces a partial shutdown, this will count; however, announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather will not qualify. If there are multiple government shutdowns during the relevant period, this market only applies to the first shutdown, as the market will resolve after the end of the first shutdown. Notices of emergency furloughs or impacted government operations count toward the shutdown days. If no shutdown occurs during the period, this market will resolve to "No shutdown". The resolution source for this market will be the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).