
Volume
$532K
Txns
5,917
Traders
1,228
Fees
$0
Ends
Dec 18, 2025
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) December 2025 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its December 18, 2025 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the December 18, 2025, meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Trades
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Yes 100%$23.5Mvolume
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
No 100%$11.8Mvolume
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Yes 92%$1.81Mvolume
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
No 100%$6.93Mvolume
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
Yes 100%$536Kvolume
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Yes 79%$5.38Mvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5mo | noreasapa | Yes / 99.9¢ | +1,896.01 | $1.89K | |
| 5mo | pisch88 | Yes / 99.9¢ | -1,896.01 | $1.89K | |
| 5mo | FatherSena | No / 0.3¢ | +1,000.00 | $3 | |
| 5mo | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes / 99.7¢ | +1,000.00 | $997 | |
| 5mo | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes / 99.7¢ | +10.00 | $9.97 | |
| 5mo | 0xdDd8C9A16A831c360C7AB6A6f6979B9AE13a31a4-1760042367354 | Yes / 99.7¢ | -10.00 | $9.97 | |
| 5mo | lucrezia | Yes / 99.9¢ | +5.00 | $5 | |
| 5mo | lucrezia | Yes / 99.9¢ | +5.00 | $5 | |
| 5mo | regardedgeneral | Yes / 99.7¢ | -292.07 | $291 | |
| 5mo | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes / 99.7¢ | +282.07 | $281 | |
| 5mo | olaffire | No / 0.3¢ | -500.00 | $1.5 | |
| 5mo | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes / 99.7¢ | +498.33 | $497 | |
| 5mo | 0x5b8c439d59c3ED75022B92dFc1B3e1f7e77a195C-1765525108357 | No / 0.3¢ | +1,003.33 | $3 | |
| 5mo | lucrezia | Yes / 99.9¢ | +5.00 | $5 | |
| 5mo | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes / 99.9¢ | -101.00 | $101 | |
| 5mo | OLOTH | Yes / 99.9¢ | +101.00 | $101 | |
| 5mo | frankxyz | Yes / 99.6¢ | +1.52 | $1.51 | |
| 5mo | robustassistant | Yes / 99.6¢ | -1.52 | $1.51 | |
| 5mo | SumGuys | No / 0.4¢ | +442.50 | $1.77 | |
| 5mo | frankxyz | Yes / 99.6¢ | +442.50 | $441 | |
| 5mo | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes / 99.9¢ | -170.70 | $171 | |
| 5mo | d1k21 | No / 0.1¢ | +1,000.00 | $1 | |
| 5mo | kroko | No / 0.1¢ | +4,429.00 | $4.43 | |
| 5mo | olaffire | No / 0.1¢ | +1,000.00 | $1 | |
| 5mo | shine | No / 0.1¢ | +20.00 | $0.02 |
1–25