
Volume
$408K
Txns
7,325
Traders
720
Fees
$0
Ends
Dec 31, 2024
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for December 2024 shows an increase of less than 1.20°C when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of less than 1.20°C for December 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for December 2024 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Dec" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for December 2024 is provided by NASA by April 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1y | lranon | Yes / 0.1¢ | -755.00 | $0.76 | |
| 1y | sorcerer.11 | No / 99.9¢ | -755.00 | $754 | |
| 1y | lranon | Yes / 0.1¢ | -800.00 | $0.8 | |
| 1y | sorcerer.11 | No / 99.9¢ | -800.00 | $799 | |
| 1y | notebookled | Yes / 0.1¢ | +50.00 | $0.05 | |
| 1y | 0xhhrc | Yes / 0.1¢ | +100.00 | $0.1 | |
| 1y | mikea | Yes / 0.1¢ | +5.00 | $0.01 | |
| 1y | lranon | Yes / 0.1¢ | -6,018.80 | $6.02 | |
| 1y | Winner90 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +4,818.80 | $4.82 | |
| 1y | yuppis | No / 99.9¢ | -5.00 | $5 | |
| 1y | poksa | Yes / 0.1¢ | +980.00 | $0.98 | |
| 1y | MakerOne | Yes / 0.1¢ | +60.00 | $0.06 | |
| 1y | oVyg7f | No / 99.9¢ | +302.67 | $302 | |
| 1y | Winner90 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +302.67 | $0.3 | |
| 1y | oVyg7f | No / 99.9¢ | +302.67 | $302 | |
| 1y | Winner90 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +302.67 | $0.3 | |
| 1y | Winner90 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +907.09 | $0.91 | |
| 1y | oVyg7f | No / 99.9¢ | +907.09 | $906 | |
| 1y | Winner90 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +84.24 | $0.08 | |
| 1y | Winner90 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +1,168.43 | $1.17 | |
| 1y | wokerjoesleeper | No / 99.9¢ | +1,168.43 | $1.17K | |
| 1y | wokerjoesleeper | No / 99.9¢ | +84.24 | $84.2 | |
| 1y | Winner90 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +225.75 | $0.23 | |
| 1y | wokerjoesleeper | No / 99.9¢ | +225.75 | $226 | |
| 1y | Winner90 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +29.53 | $0.03 |
1–25
Natural Disaster in 2026?
No 74%$212Kvolume
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
No 90%$98.7Kvolume
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
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Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?
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Category 5 hurricane hits US before election?
No 100%$120Kvolume
Nothing Ever Happens: Natural Disaster Edition
Yes 100%$68.5Kvolume