
Volume
$503K
Txns
11,619
Traders
1,524
Fees
$0
Ends
Dec 31, 2024
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for December 2024 shows an increase of between 1.20°C (inclusive) 1.24°C (inclusive) and when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of between 1.20°C and 1.24°C for December 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for December 2024 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Dec" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for December 2024 is provided by NASA by April 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".
Trades
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
No 94%$0volume
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Yes 85%$0volume
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
No 97%$0volume
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
No 60%$0volume
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide…
Yes 60%$0volume
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide…
No 99%$0volume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1y | MaksimC | No / 99.9¢ | -3.66 | $3.66 | |
| 1y | risk-manager | Yes / 0.1¢ | -3.66 | $0 | |
| 1y | futuremultimillionaire | Yes / 0.1¢ | -2,487.14 | $2.49 | |
| 1y | risk-manager | Yes / 0.1¢ | -159.74 | $0.16 | |
| 1y | Vespuccii | No / 99.9¢ | -2,646.88 | $2.64K | |
| 1y | EvaristeGalois | Yes / 0.2¢ | +26.88 | $0.05 | |
| 1y | notebookled | Yes / 0.1¢ | +3.11 | $0 | |
| 1y | wokerjoesleeper | No / 99.8¢ | +29.53 | $29.5 | |
| 1y | EvaristeGalois | Yes / 0.1¢ | +210.00 | $0.21 | |
| 1y | EvaristeGalois | Yes / 0.2¢ | +57.36 | $0.11 | |
| 1y | wokerjoesleeper | No / 99.8¢ | +84.24 | $84.1 | |
| 1y | wokerjoesleeper | No / 99.9¢ | +225.75 | $226 | |
| 1y | EvaristeGalois | Yes / 0.2¢ | +12.64 | $0.03 | |
| 1y | EvaristeGalois | Yes / 0.2¢ | +29.53 | $0.06 | |
| 1y | cigarettes | No / 99.7¢ | +190.00 | $189 | |
| 1y | EvaristeGalois | Yes / 0.3¢ | +190.00 | $0.57 | |
| 1y | EvaristeGalois | Yes / 0.2¢ | +43.59 | $0.09 | |
| 1y | EvaristeGalois | Yes / 0.3¢ | +6.20 | $0.02 | |
| 1y | cry.eth2 | Yes / 0.3¢ | -249.79 | $0.71 | |
| 1y | EvaristeGalois | Yes / 0.3¢ | +200.00 | $0.6 | |
| 1y | wokerjoesleeper | No / 99.2¢ | +50.00 | $49.6 | |
| 1y | 3o93xjk43po33s | Yes / 0.8¢ | +50.00 | $0.4 | |
| 1y | 3o93xjk43po33s | Yes / 1.0¢ | +50.00 | $0.5 | |
| 1y | cry.eth2 | Yes / 1.0¢ | -50.00 | $0.5 | |
| 1y | Threek | No / 98.7¢ | -79.99 | $79 |
1–25