
Volume
$15K
Txns
1,045
Traders
211
Fees
$0
Ends
Sep 30, 2025
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Trades
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?
Yes 92%$0volume
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?
Yes 97%$0volume
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?
No 100%$0volume
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Yes 99%$0volume
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026?
Yes 90%$0volume
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?
Yes 90%$0volume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9mo | Novus0rdoSeclorum | No / 99.9¢ | +94.00 | $93.9 | |
| 9mo | Wojtek | Yes / 0.1¢ | +94.00 | $0.09 | |
| 9mo | Wojtek | Yes / 0.1¢ | +490.14 | $0.49 | |
| 9mo | Cookedtan | No / 99.9¢ | +490.14 | $490 | |
| 9mo | Wojtek | Yes / 0.1¢ | +15.71 | $0.02 | |
| 9mo | bethfaulkner | No / 99.9¢ | +15.71 | $15.7 | |
| 9mo | pachecolindsey | No / 99.9¢ | +12.03 | $12 | |
| 9mo | Wojtek | Yes / 0.1¢ | +12.03 | $0.01 | |
| 9mo | Wojtek | Yes / 0.1¢ | +19.07 | $0.02 | |
| 9mo | milesana | No / 99.9¢ | +19.07 | $19 | |
| 9mo | zunigarobert | No / 99.9¢ | +13.49 | $13.5 | |
| 9mo | Wojtek | Yes / 0.1¢ | +13.49 | $0.01 | |
| 9mo | Wojtek | Yes / 0.1¢ | +11.03 | $0.01 | |
| 9mo | lmontgomery | No / 99.9¢ | +11.03 | $11 | |
| 9mo | Wojtek | Yes / 0.1¢ | +14.13 | $0.01 | |
| 9mo | kramerbenjamin | No / 99.9¢ | +14.13 | $14.1 | |
| 9mo | derekrodriguez | No / 99.9¢ | +13.93 | $13.9 | |
| 9mo | Wojtek | Yes / 0.1¢ | +13.93 | $0.01 | |
| 9mo | villarrealrebecca | No / 99.9¢ | +19.12 | $19.1 | |
| 9mo | Wojtek | Yes / 0.1¢ | +19.12 | $0.02 | |
| 9mo | Wojtek | Yes / 0.1¢ | +14.47 | $0.01 | |
| 9mo | mitchellkatrina | No / 99.9¢ | +14.47 | $14.5 | |
| 9mo | barajascynthia | No / 99.9¢ | +16.36 | $16.3 | |
| 9mo | Wojtek | Yes / 0.1¢ | +16.36 | $0.02 | |
| 9mo | Wojtek | Yes / 0.1¢ | +13.44 | $0.01 |
1–25