Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?
ResolvedVolume
$322K
Txns
4,939
Traders
1,151
Fees
$3
Ends
Jan 31, 2026
Volume
$322K
Txns
4,939
Traders
1,151
Fees
$3
Ends
Jan 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the twelfth Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the twelfth launch has not occurred by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Trades
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?
Yes 100%$4.67Mvolume
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
No 100%$2.98Mvolume
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
Yes 100%$3.02Mvolume
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?
No 100%$3.98Mvolume
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?
No 100%$2.51Mvolume
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?
Yes 100%$1.64Mvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1mo | taylorisabela | No / 99.9¢ | -20.00 | $20 | |
| 1mo | 0x405809651DaE4E0556E8F3740B1e16A7DF2D35b5-1768388246454 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +5.77 | $0.01 | |
| 1mo | beenraping | No / 99.9¢ | +25.77 | $25.7 | |
| 1mo | beenraping | No / 99.8¢ | +23.00 | $23 | |
| 1mo | Suspendedgod | No / 99.8¢ | -23.00 | $23 | |
| 1mo | 0x36ae40ed86783C23b41fA7464bB58F6748e2266F-1777049910971 | Yes / 0.5¢ | +199.96 | $1 | |
| 1mo | beenraping | No / 99.5¢ | +200.00 | $199 | |
| 1mo | 0xd543...9818ee | Yes / 0.5¢ | +399.92 | $2 | |
| 1mo | beenraping | No / 99.5¢ | +400.00 | $398 | |
| 1mo | repsol | No / 99.9¢ | +4.22 | $4.22 | |
| 1mo | 0x405809651DaE4E0556E8F3740B1e16A7DF2D35b5-1768388246454 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +4.22 | $0 | |
| 1mo | letsgo33 | Yes / 0.2¢ | +73.57 | $0.15 | |
| 1mo | 0x41F0AA18c7993751fd4330f9612F593A4C4630BF-1777223995011 | Yes / 0.2¢ | -73.57 | $0.14 | |
| 1mo | 0x2be0...726dee | No / 99.2¢ | -5.01 | $4.97 | |
| 1mo | beenraping | No / 99.2¢ | +5.01 | $4.97 | |
| 1mo | letsgo33 | Yes / 0.2¢ | +29.24 | $0.06 | |
| 1mo | SweetChariot | No / 99.8¢ | +29.24 | $29.2 | |
| 1mo | LetTheGoodTimesRoll | Yes / 0.6¢ | +10.00 | $0.06 | |
| 1mo | MattiBianchi08. | No / 99.5¢ | -4,370.29 | $4.35K | |
| 1mo | letsgo33 | Yes / 0.2¢ | +15.08 | $0.03 | |
| 1mo | letsgo33 | Yes / 0.7¢ | +25.86 | $0.18 | |
| 1mo | letsgo33 | Yes / 0.6¢ | +111.71 | $0.67 | |
| 1mo | beenraping | No / 99.5¢ | +4,622.12 | $4.6K | |
| 1mo | LetTheGoodTimesRoll | Yes / 0.2¢ | +10.00 | $0.02 | |
| 1mo | daroghi | No / 99.3¢ | -60.00 | $59.6 |
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