
Volume
$2K
Txns
62
Traders
23
Fees
$0
Ends
Mar 2, 2026
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between February 17 and February 28, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or below the listed value, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before February 28, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before February 28, 2026 by March 07, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before February 28, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before February 28, 2026 will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr. Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Trades
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Yes 100%$23.5Mvolume
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
No 100%$11.8Mvolume
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Yes 92%$1.81Mvolume
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
No 100%$6.93Mvolume
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
Yes 100%$536Kvolume
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Yes 79%$5.38Mvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3mo | 0x1c90...0ebbd5 | No / 99.9¢ | +0.70 | $0.7 | |
| 3mo | 0x405809651DaE4E0556E8F3740B1e16A7DF2D35b5-1768388246454 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +0.70 | $0 | |
| 3mo | Deway | No / 99.6¢ | -8.23 | $8.2 | |
| 3mo | Wildanimal | No / 99.6¢ | +8.23 | $8.2 | |
| 3mo | 0x405809651DaE4E0556E8F3740B1e16A7DF2D35b5-1768388246454 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +9.30 | $0.01 | |
| 3mo | Deway | No / 99.9¢ | +9.30 | $9.29 | |
| 3mo | jiuouxia | No / 99.5¢ | +216.00 | $215 | |
| 3mo | shihanxing | Yes / 0.5¢ | +216.00 | $1.08 | |
| 3mo | jiangbuzen | Yes / 0.7¢ | +212.86 | $1.49 | |
| 3mo | heganxing | No / 99.3¢ | +212.86 | $211 | |
| 3mo | Qurir | No / 99.7¢ | +1.00 | $1 | |
| 3mo | 0xF3F7892a6714B8078B5b141f5b8481BeD92e8C35-1771536051142 | Yes / 0.3¢ | +1.00 | $0 | |
| 3mo | 0xF3F7892a6714B8078B5b141f5b8481BeD92e8C35-1771536051142 | Yes / 0.5¢ | +2.64 | $0.01 | |
| 3mo | tiredShip | No / 99.5¢ | +10.00 | $9.95 | |
| 3mo | 0xF3F7892a6714B8078B5b141f5b8481BeD92e8C35-1771536051142 | Yes / 0.5¢ | +7.36 | $0.04 | |
| 3mo | Itsfurreal | No / 99.0¢ | +5.00 | $4.95 | |
| 3mo | rocketcrypto | Yes / 1.0¢ | +5.00 | $0.05 | |
| 3mo | 0xF3F7892a6714B8078B5b141f5b8481BeD92e8C35-1771536051142 | Yes / 0.2¢ | +9.13 | $0.02 | |
| 3mo | 0xF3F7892a6714B8078B5b141f5b8481BeD92e8C35-1771536051142 | Yes / 1.1¢ | +9.09 | $0.1 | |
| 3mo | rocket661 | Yes / 1.0¢ | +5.00 | $0.05 | |
| 3mo | rocketcrypto | Yes / 1.0¢ | +5.00 | $0.05 | |
| 3mo | rar111 | No / 99.2¢ | +28.22 | $28 | |
| 3mo | t189 | Yes / 1.0¢ | +6.00 | $0.06 | |
| 3mo | tiredShip | No / 99.0¢ | +6.00 | $5.94 | |
| 3mo | t189 | Yes / 1.0¢ | +10.00 | $0.1 |
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