Will Siaosi Pōhiva be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?

The 2025 Tongan general elections will be held on November 30, 2025, to elect members of the Legislative Assembly of Tonga (Fale Alea ʻo Tonga). This market will resolve according to the next Prime Minister of Tonga following the election. Any interim/caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no next Prime Minister of Tonga is instated by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "Other." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Tonga, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.