Will Reiwa Shinsengumi be part of the governing coalition as a result of the 2026 Japanese snap election?

General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party is part of the first governing, non-caretaker coalition formed as a result of the next Japanese general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A party will be considered part of the governing coalition only if, following the election, at least one member of that party is formally appointed as a Cabinet minister by the Prime Minister. The existence or non-existence of a written coalition agreement will not be determinative for purposes of this market. A party that supports the government through a confidence-and-supply arrangement, legislative cooperation, or voting support, but does not hold any Cabinet minister positions, will not be considered part of the governing coalition for purposes of this market. If one party holds a majority and provides all Cabinet ministers, that party is the sole governing party, and all other parties are considered not part of the governing coalition. This market may resolve once the Prime Minister is elected by the National Diet and the Cabinet is formally appointed and announced under non-caretaker circumstances. If the composition of the governing coalition is not known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting regarding the formation of the governing coalition. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official statements or documentation from the Japanese government, including the Prime Minister’s Office or the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/).