Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 4?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a reconciliation bill is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress by July 4, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. The bill does not need to be signed into law by the President The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.