Will Raja Krishnamoorthi win the Illinois Democratic Senate Primary by 9% or more?

The Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Illinois is scheduled for March 17, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary election for United States Senator from Illinois. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin of victory bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Illinois State Board of Elections (https://www.elections.il.gov/electionoperations/ElectionResults.aspx); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.