Will Partido Popular win 40-43 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regional election?

Elections for the autonomous community of Castilla y Leon’s unicameral legislature (Cortes) are scheduled for March 15, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by Partido Popular (PP) in the Cortes of Castilla y Leon as a result of this election. Any regional branch of Partido Popular will be considered to be the same as Partido Popular. If the results of this election are not definitively known by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Popular in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).