Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
ActiveVolume
$442K
Txns
8,121
Traders
1,203
Fees
$208
Liquidity
$8,341
Ends
Jun 30, 2026
Volume
$442K
Txns
8,121
Traders
1,203
Fees
$208
Liquidity
$8,341
Ends
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5m | 0x5E9B0432E4c90777c50e10660f8D6068284B1e50-1720122014571 | Yes / 3.7¢ | +135.14 | $5.19 | |
| 5m | BSS37 | Yes / 3.7¢ | -64.84 | $2.4 | |
| 5m | Biver52 | Yes / 3.7¢ | -70.30 | $2.6 | |
| 33m | Biver52 | Yes / 3.7¢ | -4.05 | $0.15 | |
| 33m | iliabouchouev | No / 96.2¢ | -4.05 | $3.89 | |
| 7h | pm777777 | No / 96.2¢ | +100.00 | $96.2 | |
| 7h | bmtr | Yes / 3.8¢ | +100.00 | $3.95 | |
| 16h | PPMT | No / 96.3¢ | +15.00 | $14.4 | |
| 16h | thrashformer | No / 96.2¢ | -15.00 | $14.4 | |
| 17h | bmtr | Yes / 3.0¢ | -25.00 | $0.74 | |
| 17h | TraderProMax | Yes / 3.1¢ | +25.00 | $0.78 | |
| 17h | blamezo | Yes / 3.9¢ | +25.64 | $1.04 | |
| 17h | Biver52 | Yes / 3.9¢ | -25.64 | $1 | |
| 18h | Haradwaith | Yes / 3.0¢ | -1,146.98 | $34.4 | |
| 18h | bmtr | Yes / 3.0¢ | +1,146.98 | $35.7 | |
| 18h | 0x6b0e...46e3ea | Yes / 3.0¢ | +233.00 | $6.99 | |
| 18h | obamaosama | Yes / 2.9¢ | -6,099.64 | $179 | |
| 18h | 0x6b0e...46e3ea | Yes / 4.0¢ | +150.00 | $6 | |
| 18h | 0x6b0e...46e3ea | Yes / 5.0¢ | +20.00 | $1 | |
| 18h | Wojtek | Yes / 2.0¢ | +500.00 | $10 | |
| 18h | 0x6b0e...46e3ea | Yes / 5.0¢ | +20.00 | $1 | |
| 18h | acal | Yes / 2.0¢ | +100.00 | $2 | |
| 18h | Biver52 | Yes / 5.0¢ | +100.00 | $5 | |
| 18h | Wojtek | Yes / 4.0¢ | +286.45 | $11.5 | |
| 18h | acal | Yes / 4.0¢ | +60.00 | $2.4 |
1–25
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Yes 94%$3.15Mvolume
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Yes 85%$1.82Mvolume
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?
No 82%$59.3Kvolume
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?
Yes 83%$51.5Kvolume
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
No 100%$634Kvolume
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
No 96%$225Kvolume