
Volume
$42K
Txns
1,598
Traders
336
Fees
$0
Ends
Nov 10, 2025
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2025 versus the data points available for all other Octobers on record. Note: If October 2025 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Oct" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2025 is provided by NASA by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Trades
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June 2026?
No 79%$5Kvolume
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026?
No 85%$2.78Kvolume
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
No 73%$413Kvolume
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
Yes 66%$353Kvolume
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
No 96%$399Kvolume
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
No 98%$371Kvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7mo | 0xe50b...008a38 | No / 99.9¢ | -8.39 | $8.38 | |
| 7mo | 0xb1f6...fffb3a | No / 99.9¢ | -20.90 | $20.9 | |
| 7mo | wokerjoesleeper | No / 99.8¢ | +184.32 | $184 | |
| 7mo | 0x386b22c491Fe7b89EC3f1CD7358C63704Cb91100-1725884513302 | No / 99.9¢ | -7.90 | $7.89 | |
| 7mo | anciente | Yes / 0.7¢ | +900.00 | $6.53 | |
| 7mo | rated | No / 99.1¢ | +675.68 | $670 | |
| 7mo | Simon4s | Yes / 0.1¢ | +96.51 | $0.1 | |
| 7mo | 0xef2a...99bd7e | Yes / 0.1¢ | +58.00 | $0.06 | |
| 7mo | 0xe9b4...42f03a | Yes / 0.1¢ | +37.50 | $0.04 | |
| 7mo | 0x2E62f622027F5E3346867Da540653fE8C03aAAE8-1741349483431 | No / 99.9¢ | -9.66 | $9.65 | |
| 7mo | 0x1d66...d2d8d0 | No / 99.9¢ | -7.52 | $7.51 | |
| 7mo | influenz.eth | No / 99.9¢ | +1,096.33 | $1.1K | |
| 7mo | 0xea40...58b9dc | No / 99.9¢ | -14.32 | $14.3 | |
| 7mo | 0xc1d5...6b677f | No / 99.9¢ | -18.05 | $18 | |
| 7mo | anciente | No / 99.9¢ | +900.00 | $899 | |
| 7mo | 0x54fc...a7eebc | No / 99.9¢ | -17.58 | $17.6 | |
| 7mo | cigarettes | No / 99.8¢ | +40.00 | $39.9 | |
| 7mo | Simon4s | Yes / 0.1¢ | +900.00 | $0.9 | |
| 7mo | tailevent | Yes / 0.1¢ | +800.00 | $0.8 | |
| 7mo | wokerjoesleeper | No / 99.9¢ | +3.49 | $3.49 | |
| 7mo | Simon4s | Yes / 0.1¢ | +3.49 | $0 | |
| 7mo | 0xe9b4...42f03a | Yes / 0.1¢ | +45.50 | $0.05 | |
| 7mo | ZXWP | No / 99.9¢ | +140.55 | $140 | |
| 7mo | 0xf8b7...2114de | Yes / 0.1¢ | +95.05 | $0.1 | |
| 7mo | 0xf8b7...2114de | Yes / 0.1¢ | +10.04 | $0.01 |
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