Will Noboa win outright in 1st round of Ecuador Election?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Ecuador on February 9, 2025. If necessary, a second round will be held on April 13, 2025. To win in the first round outright, one presidential candidate must secure over 50% of the vote, or over 40% of the vote and be 10 points ahead of their nearest rival. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Daniel Noboa wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ecuadorian Government, specifically the National Electoral Council (https://www.cne.gob.ec/).