Will May 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
ActiveVolume
$1,589
Txns
47
Traders
14
Fees
$9
Liquidity
$3,811
Ends
Jun 10, 2026
Volume
$1,589
Txns
47
Traders
14
Fees
$9
Liquidity
$3,811
Ends
Jun 10, 2026
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12h | supersmard | Yes / 38.0¢ | +6.45 | $2.45 | |
| 12h | 0x43bD2427E8e1f0A47858bB3B4e355366C0f26970-1777970981814 | No / 62.7¢ | +6.38 | $4 | |
| 15h | supersmard | Yes / 38.0¢ | +70.00 | $26.6 | |
| 15h | Falconne | No / 62.7¢ | +69.18 | $43.4 | |
| 16h | ImHereForTheRewards | No / 64.0¢ | +111.00 | $71 | |
| 16h | ImHereForTheRewards | No / 63.0¢ | +37.95 | $23.9 | |
| 16h | ImHereForTheRewards | No / 62.0¢ | +99.00 | $61.4 | |
| 16h | supersmard | Yes / 37.4¢ | +245.06 | $91.6 | |
| 1d | ImHereForTheRewards | No / 66.0¢ | +88.00 | $58.1 | |
| 1d | handofmiddas | Yes / 34.4¢ | +87.01 | $29.9 | |
| 1d | ToyodaMan | Yes / 33.0¢ | +20.96 | $6.92 | |
| 1d | 0x7438...fbb741 | Yes / 31.9¢ | -20.96 | $6.69 | |
| 1d | 387411007415611814092217897387 | Yes / 37.0¢ | +184.05 | $68.1 | |
| 1d | ImHereForTheRewards | No / 63.7¢ | +181.90 | $116 | |
| 1d | 387411007415611814092217897387 | Yes / 37.0¢ | +72.73 | $26.9 | |
| 1d | Falconne | No / 63.7¢ | +71.88 | $45.8 | |
| 2d | ToyodaMan | Yes / 30.0¢ | +9.00 | $2.7 | |
| 2d | Falconne | No / 70.7¢ | +8.91 | $6.3 | |
| 2d | 0x7438...fbb741 | Yes / 31.0¢ | +10.48 | $3.25 | |
| 2d | Falconne | No / 69.7¢ | +10.37 | $7.23 | |
| 2d | 0x7438...fbb741 | Yes / 31.0¢ | +10.48 | $3.25 | |
| 2d | ToyodaMan | Yes / 30.0¢ | +9.52 | $2.86 | |
| 2d | Falconne | No / 70.2¢ | +19.79 | $13.9 | |
| 2d | ToyodaMan | Yes / 30.0¢ | +14.29 | $4.29 | |
| 2d | 0x619f07F3d03EA89A5facbf42Eed836df06E86273-1775415645568 | No / 70.7¢ | +14.14 | $10 |
1–25
Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?
No 87% · $7.9K volume
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
No 68% · $368K volume
Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?
No 82% · $2.25K volume
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
No 96% · $371K volume
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
No 96% · $345K volume
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
Yes 59% · $305K volume