Will Livre win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election?

A snap legislative election will take place in Portugal on 18 May 2025 to elect members of the Assembly of the Republic to the 17th Legislature. This market will resolve to the political party that controls the most seats in Portugal's Assembly of the Republic as a result of the upcoming election. If voting in the next Portugal election for the Assembly of the Republic does not occur by February 28, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Portugal’s government (e.g. via https://www.portaldoeleitor.pt/en/Pages/default.aspx). Note: The AD (Democratic Alliance), composed of PSD (Social Democratic Party), CDS–PP (People's Party) and PPM (People's Monarchist Party) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition for the purpose of this market. If this alliance breaks up prior to the election, the market for AD (Democratic Alliance) will be assigned to the PSD (Social Democratic Party). The CDU (Unitary Democratic Coalition), composed of the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition for the purpose of this market. If this alliance breaks up prior to the election, the market for CDU (Unitary Democratic Coalition) will be assigned to PCP (Portuguese Communist Party) .