Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polish Presidential election?

Poland has a two-round system for presidential elections, where a runoff between the top two candidates is held if no candidate secures an absolute majority in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Polish presidential election are not known by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official results of the election, as reported by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market resolves based on the election results from the Polish government, specifically the National Electoral Commission (Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza, PKW) (https://www.pkw.gov.pl/).