Will Kamala lead in RCP by 2.5-2.9 September 6?
ResolvedVolume
$253K
Txns
1,590
Traders
104
Fees
$0
Ends
Sep 6, 2024
Volume
$253K
Txns
1,590
Traders
104
Fees
$0
Ends
Sep 6, 2024
This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as of September 6, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the RCP Polling Average margin is between Harris +2.5 (inclusive) and Harris +2.9 (inclusive) percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The RCP Polling Average will be checked on September 6, 12:00 PM ET. Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used. If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is not available by September 10, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of September 6, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.
Trades
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
No 85%$2.44Bvolume
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Yes 100%$15.7Mvolume
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
No 82%$28.8Mvolume
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Yes 100%$7.13Mvolume
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
No 96%$4.38Mvolume
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
No 56%$27.1Mvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1y | Nucclear | No / 99.9¢ | -10.00 | $9.99 | |
| 1y | AgricultureSecretary | No / 99.9¢ | +10.00 | $9.99 | |
| 1y | Qtyu | No / 99.9¢ | -7.15 | $7.14 | |
| 1y | qrpenc | Yes / 0.1¢ | -7.15 | $0.01 | |
| 1y | Qtyu | No / 99.9¢ | -50.00 | $50 | |
| 1y | DerryTavis | No / 99.9¢ | +50.00 | $50 | |
| 1y | DerryTavis | No / 99.9¢ | +162.04 | $162 | |
| 1y | Qtyu | No / 99.9¢ | -162.04 | $162 | |
| 1y | Qtyu | No / 99.9¢ | -72.43 | $72.4 | |
| 1y | DerryTavis | No / 99.9¢ | +72.43 | $72.4 | |
| 1y | sorcerer.money | No / 99.9¢ | +103.00 | $103 | |
| 1y | pootytherewardfarmer | Yes / 0.1¢ | +52.00 | $0.05 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | No / 99.9¢ | -51.00 | $50.9 | |
| 1y | qrpenc | Yes / 0.1¢ | -148.56 | $0.15 | |
| 1y | aviato | No / 99.9¢ | -148.56 | $148 | |
| 1y | qrpenc | Yes / 0.1¢ | -160.02 | $0.16 | |
| 1y | pootytherewardfarmer | Yes / 0.1¢ | +55.00 | $0.06 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | No / 99.9¢ | -105.02 | $105 | |
| 1y | dadadabababab | No / 99.9¢ | +160.00 | $160 | |
| 1y | DerryTavis | No / 99.9¢ | +533.00 | $532 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | No / 99.9¢ | -160.00 | $160 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | No / 99.9¢ | -533.00 | $532 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | No / 99.9¢ | -160.00 | $160 | |
| 1y | DerryTavis | No / 99.9¢ | +22.90 | $22.9 | |
| 1y | ExhaustedBoyBilly | No / 99.9¢ | -22.90 | $22.9 |
1–25