Will Jasmine Crockett lose the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary Election?

This is a polymarket about Jasmine Crockett’s results in the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary Election and the 2026 Texas Senate General Election (including any potential second rounds or runoffs). If Crockett wins the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary Election and the 2026 Texas Senate General Election, this market will resolve to “Win Senate Race”. If Crockett wins the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary Election, but loses the 2026 Texas Senate General Election, this market will resolve to “Win Dem Primary, Lose Senate Race”. If Crockett loses the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary Election, this market will resolve to “Lose Dem Primary”. Crockett losing the Democratic Primary will resolve this market regardless of whether she enters the 2026 Texas Senate General Election as an independent. If Crockett does not contest a lost election, it will be considered to be a loss. The results of the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary will be determined based on the official announcement of the results from the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice. The results of the 2026 Texas Senate General Election will be determined based on the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. A candidate will have won once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, the winning candidate will be determined based on the official certification of election results.