Will Israel invade Iran before July?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran between June 18 and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of June 18, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. Special forces and intelligence operations in Iranian territory which are not intended to establish territorial control will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.