
Volume
$31K
Txns
309
Traders
51
Fees
$0
Ends
Oct 15, 2024
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the tropical system currently named Helene first makes landfall in the contiguous United States as a Category 1 hurricane or weaker, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/HELENE.shtml). If Helene is not officially reported to be Category 1 or weaker at the time of its first landfall in the contiguous United States, this market shall resolve to "No". If Helene dissipates without making landfall in the contiguous United States, this market will resolve to "Yes". For the purposes of this market, hurricane categories are defined by NOAA (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php), and a hurricane landfall is considered to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL). This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC for whether Helene has made landfall in the contiguous United States at a strength of Category 1 or weaker, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1y | OddsMaker77 | Yes / 0.5¢ | +0.53 | $0 | |
| 1y | stacy | No / 99.5¢ | +0.53 | $0.53 | |
| 1y | stacy | No / 99.5¢ | +9.05 | $9 | |
| 1y | OddsMaker77 | Yes / 0.5¢ | +9.05 | $0.05 | |
| 1y | stacy | No / 99.5¢ | +80.40 | $80 | |
| 1y | OddsMaker77 | Yes / 0.5¢ | +80.40 | $0.4 | |
| 1y | stacy | No / 99.9¢ | +4.90 | $4.9 | |
| 1y | Geromi | Yes / 0.1¢ | +4.90 | $0 | |
| 1y | OddsMaker77 | Yes / 0.5¢ | +217.19 | $1 | |
| 1y | carp | Yes / 0.5¢ | -100.00 | $0.5 | |
| 1y | Geromi | Yes / 0.3¢ | -53.87 | $0.16 | |
| 1y | Grisnatch | Yes / 0.4¢ | -49.13 | $0.2 | |
| 1y | aenews2 | No / 99.0¢ | +14.19 | $14 | |
| 1y | stacy | No / 99.9¢ | +20.02 | $20 | |
| 1y | Geromi | Yes / 0.1¢ | +20.02 | $0.02 | |
| 1y | OddsMaker77 | Yes / 0.3¢ | +333.33 | $1 | |
| 1y | Geromi | Yes / 0.3¢ | -333.33 | $1 | |
| 1y | OddsMaker77 | Yes / 0.5¢ | +200.00 | $1 | |
| 1y | carp | Yes / 0.5¢ | -200.00 | $1 | |
| 1y | aenews2 | No / 99.0¢ | +2,000.00 | $1.98K | |
| 1y | Andy0091 | Yes / 1.0¢ | +2,000.00 | $20 | |
| 1y | majestic-twelve | Yes / 0.8¢ | -111.00 | $0.89 | |
| 1y | Andy0091 | Yes / 1.0¢ | +3,051.68 | $30 | |
| 1y | aenews2 | No / 99.0¢ | +2,842.43 | $2.81K | |
| 1y | Grisnatch | Yes / 0.7¢ | -98.25 | $0.69 |
1–25
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?
Yes 53%$34.3Kvolume
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
No 90%$98.8Kvolume
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
No 73%$335Kvolume
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers?
No 74%$3.14Kvolume
Natural Disaster in 2026?
No 80%$212Kvolume
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers?
No 92%$798volume