
Volume
$176K
Txns
2,395
Traders
244
Fees
$0
Ends
Feb 28, 2025
On February 12, Sam Altman tweeted that OpenAI planned on releasing GPT-4.5 (Orion) in the coming weeks (see:https://x.com/sama/status/1889755723078443244) This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-4.5 model is made available to the general public by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-4.5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-4.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-4.5, or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-4, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-3.5. If GPT-5 is released before GPT-4.5 is released, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1y | Ordon | Yes / 99.9¢ | +123.52 | $123 | |
| 1y | oniros | Yes / 99.9¢ | -123.52 | $123 | |
| 1y | lwqdcdscm | Yes / 99.9¢ | -347.26 | $347 | |
| 1y | Ordon | Yes / 99.9¢ | +347.26 | $347 | |
| 1y | Ordon | Yes / 99.9¢ | +10.00 | $9.99 | |
| 1y | RhondaTurdFergusson | Yes / 99.9¢ | -10.00 | $9.99 | |
| 1y | rpo | No / 0.1¢ | -415.07 | $0.42 | |
| 1y | Ordon | Yes / 99.9¢ | +1,023.93 | $1.02K | |
| 1y | Breadin3languages | No / 0.1¢ | -2,222.00 | $2.22 | |
| 1y | Bit666-157 | No / 0.1¢ | +4,000.00 | $4 | |
| 1y | m20241223 | Yes / 99.9¢ | +339.00 | $339 | |
| 1y | rpo | No / 0.1¢ | -170.40 | $0.17 | |
| 1y | Parz1vaI | Yes / 99.9¢ | -170.40 | $170 | |
| 1y | rpo | No / 0.1¢ | -114.53 | $0.11 | |
| 1y | kevin.nov | Yes / 99.9¢ | -114.53 | $114 | |
| 1y | rpo | No / 0.1¢ | +100.00 | $0.1 | |
| 1y | notebookled | No / 0.1¢ | -100.00 | $0.1 | |
| 1y | 0x1C7Ea49c1B1badD8cdDf6fBD3e2cbCaf7fe3 | Yes / 99.9¢ | +365.00 | $365 | |
| 1y | rpo | No / 0.1¢ | +365.00 | $0.36 | |
| 1y | rpo | No / 0.1¢ | +1,000.00 | $1 | |
| 1y | 0x1C7Ea49c1B1badD8cdDf6fBD3e2cbCaf7fe3 | Yes / 99.9¢ | +1,000.00 | $999 | |
| 1y | 8396239287 | Yes / 99.9¢ | -3,635.00 | $3.63K | |
| 1y | 0x1C7Ea49c1B1badD8cdDf6fBD3e2cbCaf7fe3 | Yes / 99.9¢ | +3,635.00 | $3.63K | |
| 1y | maniputakl | Yes / 99.8¢ | -10.00 | $9.98 | |
| 1y | notebookled | No / 0.1¢ | +100.00 | $0.1 |
1–25
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?
No 100%$189Kvolume
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?
Yes 100%$116Kvolume
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Yes 93%$3.17Mvolume
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550?
No 100%$74.8Kvolume
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?
Yes 100%$120Kvolume
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Yes 88%$1.84Mvolume