Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in November 2025?
ResolvedVolume
$60K
Txns
2,367
Traders
431
Fees
$0
Ends
Dec 11, 2025
Volume
$60K
Txns
2,367
Traders
431
Fees
$0
Ends
Dec 11, 2025
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2025 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for November 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for November 2025 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Nov" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2025 is provided by NASA by January 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Trades
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6mo | Friday | Yes / 0.1¢ | -8.00 | $0.01 | |
| 6mo | Gggghi | Yes / 0.1¢ | +8.00 | $0.01 | |
| 6mo | Gggghi | Yes / 0.1¢ | +6.00 | $0.01 | |
| 6mo | WEN-99 | Yes / 0.1¢ | -1,600.00 | $1.6 | |
| 6mo | Harbest | Yes / 0.1¢ | +14.00 | $0.01 | |
| 6mo | 0x4018...7dd14a | Yes / 0.1¢ | +265.00 | $0.27 | |
| 6mo | Liamyxy | Yes / 0.1¢ | +14.00 | $0.01 | |
| 6mo | LBZero | Yes / 0.1¢ | +92.00 | $0.09 | |
| 6mo | 0xf8b7...2114de | Yes / 0.1¢ | +159.00 | $0.16 | |
| 6mo | Mattia.Ilenotti | Yes / 0.1¢ | +50.00 | $0.05 | |
| 6mo | thecaricature | Yes / 0.1¢ | +1,000.00 | $1 | |
| 6mo | scottvan4 | Yes / 0.3¢ | -8.79 | $0.03 | |
| 6mo | LBZero | No / 99.7¢ | +46.30 | $46.2 | |
| 6mo | 123987456 | Yes / 0.3¢ | +55.09 | $0.17 | |
| 6mo | WEN-99 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +992.79 | $0.99 | |
| 6mo | MinoanCrocus | Yes / 0.1¢ | -1,665.80 | $1.67 | |
| 6mo | 0xef2a...99bd7e | Yes / 0.1¢ | +144.00 | $0.14 | |
| 6mo | 0x35c0...ab81d6 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +262.01 | $0.26 | |
| 6mo | 0x161f...28b075 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +88.00 | $0.09 | |
| 6mo | 0xe9b4...42f03a | Yes / 0.1¢ | +179.00 | $0.18 | |
| 6mo | 0x35c0...ab81d6 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +10.00 | $0.01 | |
| 6mo | 0x2063...6bed55 | No / 99.9¢ | +10.00 | $9.99 | |
| 6mo | 0x35c0...ab81d6 | Yes / 0.1¢ | +225.01 | $0.23 | |
| 6mo | 0xe9b4...42f03a | Yes / 0.1¢ | +76.00 | $0.08 | |
| 6mo | triklozoid | Yes / 0.1¢ | +14.00 | $0.01 |
1–25
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
No 71%$335Kvolume
Natural Disaster in 2026?
No 78%$212Kvolume
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
No 90%$98.8Kvolume
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?
No 55%$34.1Kvolume
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers?
No 92%$1.39Kvolume
Category 5 hurricane hits US before election?
No 100%$120Kvolume