Will Erna Solberg become the next Prime Minister of Norway?

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed Prime Minister by royal decree of the King of Norway in the Council of State following the 2025 parliamentary election. If no such decree is issued—for example, in cases of government continuity—the sitting Prime Minister at the time the King appoints ministers for the new cabinet will be considered the winner. If the incumbent Prime Minister and cabinet are confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have secured re-election without the need for a new decree or formal appointment, the market will resolve accordingly. If no new government is appointed by December 31, 2025, the market will resolve to the most recently appointed permanent Prime Minister. Only Prime Ministers who take office as a result of an election will qualify. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister—including those serving under Norway’s standing incapacity rule—will not count toward the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Norway; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.