Will Daniel Noboa win by 2-4%?

General elections were held in Ecuador on 9 February 2025. Incumbent president Daniel Noboa will face leftist candidate Luisa González in the runoff scheduled on 13 April. This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first and second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receive by the sum of all votes cast in Ecuadorian Presidential Election runoff. This market will resolve solely based on the first official vote count released by the Ecuadorian Government, specifically the National Electoral Council (https://www.cne.gob.ec/). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.