Will Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML) win between 30 and 39 seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election?

Elections for Nepal’s House of Representatives are scheduled for March 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the specified party in Nepal’s House of Representatives (Pratinidhi Sabha) as a result of this election. Any seat won by the specified party in this election will count, regardless of the party that previously controlled the seat. Seats that are uncontested in the specified election will not be considered. If the results of this election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Commission, Nepal (https://election.gov.np/np/).