Will Claude pass Grok by November 15 on the UnifAI Polyarena?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point by November 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, Claude Sonnet 4.5 “Current Value” on the UnifAI’s Polyarena leaderboard exceeds that of Grok 4. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be the Portfolio Value History chart available at https://polyarena.unifai.network/. Because data points may be recorded at slightly different times for each model, comparisons will be made using the latest available Grok value prior to each Claude data point. If both models have data points at the same timestamp, those values will be compared directly. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable during the market timeframe, this market will resolve once the corresponding data for that period becomes available. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “No.”