Will Christian Menefee win the Texas House special election runoff by 15% or more?

The Texas House special election runoff for Texas’s 18th Congressional District is scheduled to be held on January 31, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas House special election runoff. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the election aren’t known by March 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.