Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election by 18–21%?

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory for Catherine Connolly in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election, scheduled to take place on October 24, 2025. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If Catherine Connolly does not receive the most votes in the certified results, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the election aren’t known by March 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the first official vote count released by the Electoral Commission of Ireland (electoralcommission.ie). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.