Will Carney government pass a confidence vote before June?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Canadian House of Commons passes a confidence vote in favor of a Liberal government by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A "confidence vote" includes any formal vote of confidence, any vote the government designates as a matter of confidence (such as a vote on the Speech from the Throne or a budget bill), or any explicit motion of non-confidence introduced by the opposition that the government survives. Passage requires a majority of votes cast in favor of the government. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official parliamentary records or a consensus of credible reporting.