Will Arooj Shah win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?

The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election. If two candidates tie for receiving the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election, this market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the specified election. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).