Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026?
ActiveVolume
$845
Txns
77
Traders
31
Fees
$6
Liquidity
$1,852
Ends
Volume
$845
Txns
77
Traders
31
Fees
$6
Liquidity
$1,852
Ends
Jul 31, 2026
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Trades
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
Yes 59%$333Kvolume
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
No 100%$2.94Mvolume
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Yes 95%$3.25Mvolume
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Yes 87%$1.9Mvolume
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?
No 62%$110Kvolume
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
No 97%$833Kvolume
| Age | Trader | Outcome | Shares | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13h | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes / 78.0¢ | +8.00 | $6.24 | |
| 13h | 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060 | No / 22.0¢ | +8.00 | $1.81 | |
| 13h | 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060 | No / 22.0¢ | +11.00 | $2.5 | |
| 13h | Corlys | No / 22.0¢ | +11.00 | $2.5 | |
| 13h | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes / 78.0¢ | +11.00 | $8.58 | |
| 13h | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes / 78.0¢ | +3.00 | $2.34 | |
| 13h | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes / 78.0¢ | +11.00 | $8.58 | |
| 13h | pd.unique | No / 22.0¢ | +3.00 | $0.68 | |
| 13h | 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060 | No / 22.0¢ | +17.00 | $3.86 | |
| 13h | pd.unique | No / 22.0¢ | +2.75 | $0.62 | |
| 13h | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes / 78.0¢ | +17.00 | $13.3 | |
| 13h | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes / 78.0¢ | +2.75 | $2.15 | |
| 13h | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes / 78.0¢ | +9.00 | $7.02 | |
| 13h | Corlys | No / 22.0¢ | +9.00 | $2.04 | |
| 13h | Corlys | No / 22.0¢ | +6.00 | $1.36 | |
| 13h | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes / 78.0¢ | +1.89 | $1.47 | |
| 13h | TooYoungToWin | Yes / 78.0¢ | +4.11 | $3.21 | |
| 13h | DkOYL | No / 22.0¢ | +2.25 | $0.51 | |
| 13h | TooYoungToWin | Yes / 78.0¢ | +2.25 | $1.75 | |
| 1d | manys | Yes / 70.0¢ | +0.93 | $0.65 | |
| 1d | MythicalScissors | Yes / 69.2¢ | -0.93 | $0.64 | |
| 1d | TheOnePanda | Yes / 72.0¢ | -18.42 | $13.3 | |
| 1d | MythicalScissors | Yes / 73.0¢ | -19.58 | $14.3 | |
| 1d | 1in1000 | Yes / 72.5¢ | +38.00 | $27.9 | |
| 2d | 0x765f...d51508 | Yes / 69.0¢ | +15.93 | $11 |
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